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PJJ

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PJJ last won the day on June 27

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  1. PJJ

    Land Expropriation without Compensation - Truth and Fake News

    Take off? Nope, Teleport yes
  2. PJJ

    Land Expropriation without Compensation - Truth and Fake News

    Not to nitpick because Harrismith does get REALLY cold, but even at say -5C(The coldest day I could find for me thus far this winter) you are still a awful long way from -14C I was in the US over Christmas last year, and the coldest day we had funny enough was not in New York up north, but somewhere in the middle of nowhere in Texas, -16C to be exact and I nearly died, the cold just seeps into every single opening it can find, it felt like my dentist accidentally poked my entire face with the anesthetic and then decided to go and play golf.
  3. PJJ

    Land Expropriation without Compensation - Truth and Fake News

    Also Georgia has a climate MUCH better suited for saffers than Russia.
  4. PJJ

    Land Expropriation without Compensation - Truth and Fake News

    I remember many moons ago when I visited Cape Town for the first time I met a German guy in a restaurant one night, he has a flat somewhere there where he lives for 5 months of the year or something like that because of a medical condition, but more importantly I remember him ranting and raving on about how the only way the Cape could survive was if the WC could manage to seceded from SA and become its own sovereign state, at the time I thought what a crazy idea, but since then the idea has gradually become less and less crazy.
  5. PJJ

    Land Expropriation without Compensation - Truth and Fake News

    Its called the Laffer curve Or, another popular theory is Hauser's law, which suggests that you can never collect more than 20% of GDP in taxes, regardless of the marginal tax rate.
  6. PJJ

    Land Expropriation without Compensation - Truth and Fake News

    The reset you refer to is know as the business cycle - Expansion - Recession - Depression - Recovery Everything works in booms and busts, things become overvalued and then undervalued and rinsed and repeated cycle after cycle. Now the Rands depreciation against the dollar is not a mere business cycle, its not going to "reset" at some point, however the Rands depreciation against other major currencies should also be seen in relation to interest rates, so yes the rand might lose 6% against the dollar per year, but you get compensated for with a sweet 7-9% interest rate on your randelas vs the 1-3% you would get if you held USD, so the fact that the rand loses value against the dollar is not inherently bad, because you get paid much better to hold the rand vs the dollar, or any other currency for that matter.
  7. PJJ

    Land Expropriation without Compensation - Truth and Fake News

    Yes and no, in Rand terms, the value of your house is going to skyrocket, but the value of the Rand in Dollar/Euro terms is going for a almighty decline if the whole EWC thing happens, interest rates will go through the roof and inflation will be a daily demon for most of us. So you will have a asset that is worth more in a currency that is worth-less (That was a great pun btw)
  8. PJJ

    Eskom strike tomorrow

    Speaking from experience, if your sentence ended there I would say the end of the world was near
  9. PJJ

    Eskom strike tomorrow

    In the road to serfdom you will read how in governments pursuit of central planning it will cause that very frustration Of course, life doesn't have the challenges it had 400 years ago so we find "new challenges" its human nature, however mundane we might find them today, I recently experienced this, I live in a suburb that is on top of a mountain, bordering the last bit of natural forest in the area, lately 2 of my neighbors dogs have been eaten by a leopard :O Well I can assure you getting home at night is an entire different experience, usually I had time to think of all kinds of things, now I just try not to get eaten
  10. PJJ

    Eskom strike tomorrow

    Being part of the younger generation or dare I use the term "Millennial" I find it fascinating that my peers are all so hell bent on going left? And not just left, but HARD left? From the article you linked: She ran on a platform of universal healthcare, a federal jobs guarantee program and abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (Ice) Well at least she has the honesty of calling herself a socialist, the democratic party has for a long time now been the socialist party, so I guess they too are "coming out of the closet". I always think to myself, it must be great to run as a politician on a socialist platform, you get to promise everyone free stuff, you get to make heroic speeches creating a "Us vs Them" scenario, you get to pray on human natures basic flaw of envy, I mean its the perfect storm to exploit the democratic process, because there will always be more have not's than haves. All that the younger generation (Sadly that's mine) will give mankind is serfdom, to quote Friedrich Hayek: A claim for equality of material position can be met only by a government with totalitarian powers. I would suggest if you haven't read it yet, read Friedrich Hayek's : The road to serfdom
  11. PJJ

    Eskom strike tomorrow

    Yup exactly that, once our rand denominated debt gets downgraded to junk there is going to be a massive amount of forced sellers, try like 12B USD worth of bonds force selling, that is massive, our interest rates will spiral out of control and we will end up looking like Argentina with 25% interest rates, see the thing is, the US can get away with extremely high levels of debt because it is financed at a low rate due to the perceived value of low risk, although many people, myself included, think that buying USD (of which a bond is just with some added interest) is not all that safe, and that is why you are seeing the rates of the 10 year US bond slowly creeping up, people are starting to wonder, will Uncle Sam really make good on his promises to pay us back? Its quite simple really, how can you pay back bond holders if you can't even keep your current account deficit from growing, Murica thinks that it can grow itself/inflate itself out of its debt woes, that's why the FED is so keen to see inflation at 2% but the problem is simple, they have too much debt, and too much spending, if I owe you money, but I can't even make ends meet without paying you a cent, why should you give me more money? And thus the vicious cycle begins.
  12. PJJ

    Eskom strike tomorrow

    Nope more or less the vicious cycle we are in, just to add a Nr 4 4)To make us a attractive investment destination and to keep inflation away the SARB has to raise rates, and quite significantly, hello 1998, is that you? If you currently have a home loan financed for R1M at the prime rate 10.25% your monthly repayment now is R9816.43, if the prime rate goes to 15% that same home loan will now cost you R13167.90 to service, that is insane, and painful, and the worst part, coming.
  13. PJJ

    Eskom strike tomorrow

    Indirectly yes, US interest rate increases means SA interest rate increases and because Eskom is 100% backed by government guarantees it means that government will have to pay any creditor that comes knocking, and the rate of which government will need to lend money to pay these new found creditors will be higher. Yup, sorry about that, I should use less jargon and abbreviations, as long as it when it comes to power stuffs and my knowledge thereof you guys will also honor that commitment
  14. PJJ

    Eskom strike tomorrow

    US interest rates hikes are definitely bad for us, or well, it depends who you ask as there are plenty of theories out there, I'll touch on them a bit. 1-Is rising interest rates in the US bad for SA?- Yes, why would you want to own some dodgy SA government bond only yielding 8% return (in rand terms) and maybe even negative in dollar terms, when you can hold a crisp US 10Y bond giving you a guaranteed 3% return in US dollars, so capital flees from risk to safety, so obviously if the US increases their rates, the SARB will be obliged to follow suit, because we have to convince foreign investors to park some of their cash here, so the average guy in the street will start paying more for his : Credit card/Car finance/home bond you name it. 2-Now with number 1 explained number 2 is quite interesting, Is rising interest rates bad for the US? -Yes, or well it depends if you think QE worked (spoiler alert : It didn't) the US national debt sits now at 21T Dollars... That is a number so big I don't think people can comprehend how bad that is, and before someone says "But they have a much larger GDP" their debt is 107% of their GDP, SA even with all its woes, is at 55%, so the US is pretty much broke, currently the IRS collects about 4T USD per year, of which 170B goes for servicing their current debt, which is financed quite cheaply I might add, if interest rates in the US just normalize to their long term rate, which is 5%, the US will have to spend 1T just on interest of the current debt, if interest rates spike to 10% (which they very much can) then just the interest of their outstanding debt will equal 2T! that is 50% of what they collect in a tax year, JUST on interest, now obviously this is what triggers great economic collapses, in 2008 everything came crashing down with rates at 4.5% so image 8%+ 3-Do emerging economies still have a chance? For sure, but SA is quite rightly at the bottom of the list, people will always go in search of more risk for more reward, no wealthy million or billionaire wants to sit in the US holding all his cash in bonds at a lousy 2-3% return, he wants a bit of India/China/Brazil/Eastern Europe, because although it is risky, its more often than not very rewarding in the long run.
  15. PJJ

    Eskom strike tomorrow

    I agree +100 it can be turned around, emphasis on can* See this is where the problem comes in, the wealth destruction has already been going on for the past 4 years as been massive, those that bailed out lets say in 2014 are much better off than we are today, my basis for this claim, lets look at the JSE All share over the past 4 years. Today exactly 4 years ago the All share stood at 50 625 points, today, after 4 years, its 54 700, 8% return over 4 years... Annualized over the past 4 years (excl dividends) that is a return of 2% (JSE annualized should usually be around 11%)... and over that same period the rand has also lost 30% of its value against the dollar, the All share should actually be closer to 80K by now, especially if you look at the devaluation we have had against the USD,. So in dollar terms we have been bludgeoned and beaten down to our knees, so the challenge of getting out is still up for debate, because its been going bad for so long now, but it could also go a whole lot worse first.
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