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Chris Hobson

Opinion piece Winstone Jordaan

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From a post by Winstone Jordaan - owner of the Sasol Solar Rally.

We have all heard commitments for Zero emissions by 2040. That seems such a long way away, so let's unpack this. Firstly 2040 is the country targets, like France, Germany, UK, etc. However for the cities, like Paris, London, Amsterdam, etc. this is more urgent, so they are typically setting the zero emission targets in the cities for 2030. Still a bit in the future. Consider this, a fossil fuel car in 2030 in Paris, would be worth Nothing...., possibly as soon as 2028, in fact may be worth -1000 euros, the cost to recycle it... Since people typically drive a car for 5 to 7 years. This means that anyone replacing a car from about 2021 would be anticipating a huge loss if he did not replace it with a EV. And that is the meaning of a target of 2040, that very likely within the next 3 or 4 years it would not make sense to replace your car with a fossil fuel car. So 2040 is really the practical deadline, for starting to apply pressure to change NOW to EV.

Winstone recently sold 75% of Grid Cars (an electric vehicle charging infrastructure company) to JSE listed Alviva Holdings. He is thus not a neutral commentator but I think his opnion carries weight.

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I think he makes a mistake when saying the cars will become worthless that quickly. They will be worthless to someone in the city. They will still be in demand elsewhere. That probably means small cars will drop considerably in value and be replaced with cheaper small electrical options. I'm looking forward to this. As soon as electrical vehicles drop a bit in price -- the value I have in mind at the moment without thinking too much about it is around 350k in present terms -- as soon as that happens, I want to transition to a two-vehicle solution where one vehicle is electrical and the other is ICE. I'd like the ICE one to be a Diesel, but to be honest, it seems that it's easier to make a clean ICE engine with petrol nowadays.

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