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Sarel

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Sarel last won the day on August 6

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    Like a camelion on a Smarties box ;)

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  1. You are of course welcome to comment, share your thoughts and differ from my viewpoints
  2. Just have a think, ICE cars and power generation Lets have a proper look at the SA scenario for the future, regarding ICE cars and EVs and the outlook for power generation. So why look at this you may ask? Easy answer, this is not. My distinctly charcoal grey Crystal ball is a bit foggy about the future. One thing thou is that the Legal framework and idiotic ideology in SA will not change anytime soon. The fraud, graft and ineptitude of the Cleptocracy will snowball if any of the current proposals for bee and other new legislation (or just look at the Powership story) are anything to go by. Now, I hate being negative, but all the years gone by has proof in and of itself, this is barreling along. I am a realist, just for the record. But back to ICE cars end Escam. Worldwide, many counties enacted new legislation, or are about to, to either ban ICE cars or pivot manufacturing to alternative technologies like BEV’s. Lets unpack. In less than 10 years, the production of ICE cars will plummet by a significant %. When that materialises, SA’s exports will be affected as Japan and Europe will want to keep employing their own people, so guess where factories will be closed first? Also a consequence of less demand for ICE cars will be less development for new models and a reduction of parts produced for maintenance. As electronics are updated, older chips and systems will no longer be available to manufacture the computers for older generation cars. The end game will be for ICE car manufacturing to collapse due to unavailability of parts as well as the cost to build the low volumes, making them very expensive. What will happen to industrial machines and other heavy equipment, maybe they pivot to electricity as well. There are numerous very large (100 tonne and larger) mining trucks that are electric powered or assisted, already. Diesel electric trains can all be converted to electric only. We currently have Gautrain that is electric only. The first electric ships and planes are currently being tested. Here is the rub. When ICE dies, not if, Africa will have a problem. In 2008 there was the joke about what comes after electricity for SA, and its candlepower…. With SA on a downward trend in Eskom and no relief from policy or ideology, there will be no power to support BEV’s, let alone the population at large. We have frequent shortages as it is. In the below picture, Red represents the occurrence of unplanned outages, hint, its a trend… Green trends downwards and is another trend. Over time, less and less generating capacity remains online and available. Not green is NOT good. Percentages of populations with a grid connection as well as how available or reliable that is. If its not available, it translates to loads being shed or no energy been available for those clients, or worse none at all. It looks like there are huge changes coming, with many forms of disruptions to boot. Look at industries like IT, based on silicon (just look what computers did to cars, both as controller and optimisers of combustion as well as to the design and aerodynamics via CFD, to name a few, there are many more). Energy from Solar PV (also based mostly on silicon and benefitting from the IT technology pure silicon gains and developments) now being the least expensive energy generation tech, Transportation and Space travel with the possibility of living elsewhere, however far fetched it is today. Another big technology being disrupted is that of energy storage. We never before a short few years ago, had the means of Utility class energy storage. Now look at the Gigawatt en recently Terawatt hours battery storage systems. 5 years ago, Utility scale battery storage was not a thing, now it is. And it is cheap and getting cheaper at a very fast rate. Studies show that soon if not already, Solar PV and Battery storage systems will be less expensive to build, compared to traditional systems like Coal or Nuclear, and be far less costly to maintain. Think about superconducting materials and the revolution that has happened there and in materials science in general. Now look at the latest materials technology in Carbon Nano materials. Currently the best known heat and electric conductor known. And the Carbon Nano materials are only now coming online for production use. Now, to prove the point of rapid development and disruption, smartphones are barely more than 10 years old, and see what they have done and disrupted and how quickly, just look at Twitter, Facebook and Google…. And remember when the Telephone was invented, how long did that took in comparison, to disrupt the market compared to smartphones that was doing so much faster. Another example is the car itself, it disrupted horse drawn vehicles and replaced then is just more than 10 year during the beginning of the 1900s. A few pointers on the cost reduction of disruption. IT and Moor’s law, a doubling of transistor count every 18 months. Storage increase of about 50% capacity per year or if you like a density increase for same cost or the cost for same storage capacity halves. Look at battery cost reducing by 20% per year and almost the same for Solar PV panels. In total Solar PV costs reduced 400X since the 1970s already, and it keeps on falling. Networking and digital sensors are being transformed nearly as fast or faster with associated cost reductions per unit. Where does this leave us on the African continent? In 20 to 30 years for us, there is a high probability that ICE cars and motorcycles will be utterly unaffordable if not completely unavailable. At the current trend of not properly maintaining the Coal fired generators, there will no longer be cheap or reliable energy available, if the ideology does not change. The prospects of this and the next generation changing their ideological outlook is slim to none, bar a catastrophic intervention. There is talk of Solar and Wind but I hear noting about storage and to boot, there are currently Zero and Nil Utility scale batteries connected to the grid in Africa. Calculations show that with Current technology, we need Solar PV sizing to be 4x larger than demand and just enough battery storage to cater for between 2 and 4 days worth of demand. With these ratios, we can replace base load generating stations. Imagine the efficiency and the astronomical cost savings. Oh wait, I just remembered, its not about cost savings here, its about contracts awarded to bee buddies at max value and max overrun…. Let’s remember that during the early 1900, the World suffered through an influenza pandemic, not unlike the current one. Not even that or a World war cold stop the Car disruption and transformation. Now today, think how much less you are driving due to the pandemic and why? Other technologies referred to above are aiding and abetting that your personal transportation is less of a requirement, yes even in SA, and more of a luxury. You work online, shop online, chat online etc etc. In summary then, this is just scratching the surface. The IT revolution led to the Energy revolution that includes Solar PV and Battery storage. This will cause in short order, the total decline of ICE cars to be replaced by far cheaper BEV cars. The maintenance on tases BEVs are about a 1/4 of that for ICE cars. This will leave us with a transport issue and shortage of cars since we do not have and are not planning for BEVs nor for a proper legal framework for energy generation to support BEVs. What to do, any ideas or comments? How to solve this or just how to deal with this? Let’s remember that everything is devolving from centralised to decentralised, for example the mainframe to mobile devices, banks to online banking services. Travel by car and plane to online meetings, from shopping malls to online purchases and delivery from warehouses. Nobody owns the internet and it’s distributed everywhere. The same is busy happening to transport and energy and soon food, Worldwide. It’s inevitable that these trends will hit us hard…. Sooner rather than later.
  3. Almost done wiring, all the closed DBs are wired. A few small mostly cosmetic items to tick off the list remains. Now for the integration into the home and re-wiring the house db boards with all new CBs.
  4. Now the Cerbo GX is mounted with the din rail kit. The DB board slot is just perfectly sized to see the Cerbo status lights. A wee bit OCD , but like only just…. The MPPT charge controller exposed screws are covered and cables tied down with strain relief to protect from shorts. All the DC bus bar inputs are now fused. The only remaining issue will be to make a custom cover for the Quattro feed leads on the left side of the busbars as the lugs will be exposed. Dont yet know how I want to cover that. Ethernet 1GbE wired for all the devices and talking to the Web. In the process I strted up and commissioned the BYD battery bank successfully, to confirm comms.
  5. And I could not find any tchnical info on them, like mechanical activations nor electrical activations in any of their documents. That was a no no for me.
  6. I was looking for a combined circuit breaker and isolator and for it to fit on a din rail in a db board enclosure. This was the only one that could switch 1000V DC and in stock at the time. So kinda wasn't a choice…. It was the only type available.
  7. Not the price …. Because of the way I planned to build the Micro grid, the Quattro has a second AC input, absent in the Multiplus, and the Quattro burst capability is better than the Multiplus.
  8. This 2019 CSIR report will make your eyes water One extract, actually the lowlight and it’s not even a graph. The CancER knows the answer, it was presented to them on numerous occasions. Politically it is unpalatable as it will make their political and ideological opponents independent from their control. It will also not allow them to rescue the SOE’s and divert the tax paying (not their voters mostly) public’s money into the Escam and other SOE’s without scrutiny. see the first entry under block 1. And then consider that Tshwane will offer 11 cents per kWh for feed in. Also consider all the hoops and money to be spent to get approval to be robbed blind, again…. https://arepenergy.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/81125_rs_setting_up_for_2020.pdf
  9. Yes indeed only 2 inputs allowed. Basically to get enough separation and allow extinction of the arc for voltages up to 1000V DC. In this case the 2 pole version is rated to 500V and the 4 pole to 1000V. The directionality comes from the magnetic arc extinguishing capability. If you reverse the energy flow direction, you will burn up the switch as the magnets will direct the arc not into the arc chute but into the mechanism. If I did not catch my incorrect wiring, as in first picture, all my switches would have been destroyed on the first trip or when manually opened under load!
  10. Tshwane promulgated tariffs There appears to be no fixed monthly connection charge. Its credit metering, not prepaid. Nothing is indicated as such on the bill nor on the document referred to above for single phase residential. There are charges for 3 phase tho.
  11. Effectively the availability as a % of total generating capacity. Over the years the total capacity that can be used to generate power are declining (green). Think of this as units in the fleet that are broken and never repaired, so they are still part of the original capacity but no longer capable of generation. The red line is units down (% of total units) that are down due to being broken and not taken down for maintenance or planned ahead of time.
  12. So it transpires that the Noarc polarity indicating +- signs are really really badly designed, at the input side they mean positive and negative, but the same symbols on the load (output) side does not mean positive or negative at all! How the actual f can any sane engineer butcher a standard and universally recognised symbol to mean two different things, on the same equipment at the same time? Very dangerous indeed! Very bad UI design, no wonder in some parts of the World, there are now verboten and only non polarised DC brakers are acceptable. The connections are polarity sensitive and directional. Don't be caught out by them markings like Sparky and I was caught out. Luckily we picked this up before powering on, so beware. Here its connected correctly. Outer side connections are panel inputs and colour coded correctly. The load is connected to the center two poles and is the output.
  13. The symbols are what is confusing, they indicate polarity on the input (source) side but flow direction ( relative to input) on the output side. Still idiotic, glad they getting banned. Bad UI design by any stretch of the imagination. If you have to explain it….
  14. In the first picture the load was not connected to the middle two poles (3 and 5) but that was corrected after the first picture was taken. The panels feed to poles 1 and 7 and the load is attached to poles 3 and 5.
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