Morning all,

 

I just got the heads up from a local solar supplier that there are insane price hikes taking place.

What are your thoughts, experiences.

It should looking at what the ZAR vs USD is doing, nothing is manufactured locally, and all imports are linked to USD.

If you sell at the rate of 2 months ago, you will be making a loss.

Bad news for all of us as consumers.

Started yesterday at close to R 14,86 and now sitting at R15,60

 

Also, get ready for another ratings downgrade. I can easily see all three major currencies slip another R1 if that happens, and more if it is the big one that finally makes as complete junk and forces the big funds to pull out their billions.

I just bought 2 additional sensors for my Efergy Home Hub directly from Efergy in Spain (Ellies could not supply) and from the time I started buying till I pad, it went up R23 on my total price, including shipping.

Edited September 5, 20186 yr by Antony

Euro up by R0.12 in 1 hour

That one investor who moved everything out a few years ago is looking like a genius right about now. Can't seem to find out who it is... I think it is the same guy who is pulled a heap of money out of Naspers recently. Given that Satrix40 has a large amount of naspers in it... one has to wonder what is coming next.

9 minutes ago, Antony said:

Euro up by R0.12 in 1 hour

It peaked at 18.01. But this is fairly typical of currency markets to break through a round number like that and then find resistance, usually a bunch of day traders may have buy orders set up at these points.

Edit: It shot past to 18.08. There is something to this one... it will probably drift down again in the coming week... but I think we'll be stuck above 17 for some time to come.

Edited September 5, 20186 yr by plonkster

2 hours ago, Antony said:

Morning all,

 

I just got the heads up from a local solar supplier that there are insane price hikes taking place.

What are your thoughts, experiences.

I watch our Pylontech  prices very closely.  Mid-June our retail price was R11 987.56 (Vat excl.) - Currently it is R14 236.44 (Vat excl.) - a 19% increase.

wait for the next one.....ZAR at R15.38 to $1 things are going to climb bigtime

Highs for the day so far
15.64
18.09
20.01

We are going to feel it next month

1 hour ago, Mike said:

wait for the next one.....ZAR at R15.38 to $1 things are going to climb bigtime

It is already R15.51

41 minutes ago, Antony said:

It is already R15.51

I think he meant that the present increase is based on the fact that the ZAR slipped from around 12.50 to that region between 13.50 and 14 where it hung around for a while. The next increase will have to accomodate the >R15 levels, so expect an 8%-15% increase.

Seriously, this is ridiculous. At this rate, an average senior software developer earning in Euros will have to register for VAT soon!

18 minutes ago, plonkster said:

I think he meant that the present increase is based on the fact that the ZAR slipped from around 12.50 to that region between 13.50 and 14 where it hung around for a while. The next increase will have to accomodate the >R15 levels, so expect an 8%-15% increase.

Seriously, this is ridiculous. At this rate, an average senior software developer earning in Euros will have to register for VAT soon!

OK I know where to come to for a loan 

Man I am glad I did not wait 2 months for a better price on a newly imported Multigrid.

There was no stock and Netherlands had to make more or some such I heard, so I was hard pushed to find stock in country.

I thought it was just impatience ... now it seems it was a blessing in disguise.

Worst-case scenario: rand could hit R24 to the dollar by 2019

WHAT CAN I SAY?

FNB Global account, hod in USD and convert as needed

19 minutes ago, Mike said:

FNB Global account, hod in USD and convert as needed

Yup, similar recipe, except I actually found a foreign bank willing to open an account for me. So quite hilariously, I now have an account in a "tax safe haven" (which is of course no longer true), and whenever larger items are bought I swipe the foreign card and literally convert as needed on the spot.

Keep your debt in ZAR and keep your savings in hard currency.

By a stroke of luck the populists might just make my ZAR debt the easiest thing in the world to repay

10 minutes ago, PJJ said:

By a stroke of luck the populists might just make my ZAR debt the easiest thing in the world to repay

That will likely be countered by rising interest rates, but yes, any existing debt may well become easier to repay. Unfortunately the bond on the house is tied to an asset that may in itself depreciate in the bigger picture. If one knows for sure that a bounce-back is coming, maybe over the next decade, then the obvious thing to do right now is buy as much as possible of the cheap investment opportunities locally :-)

Bitcoin also diving...

this is not how I wanted to go into Spring!

Let's move to Zim

36 minutes ago, seant said:

Let's move to Zim

I have just been North not an option. Both Zim and Zambia are mostly reliant on the South African economy.

7 hours ago, plonkster said:

That will likely be countered by rising interest rates, but yes, any existing debt may well become easier to repay. Unfortunately the bond on the house is tied to an asset that may in itself depreciate in the bigger picture. If one knows for sure that a bounce-back is coming, maybe over the next decade, then the obvious thing to do right now is buy as much as possible of the cheap investment opportunities locally :-)

Yup, rates will go up in a effort from the reserve bank to try and save the currency, but that relationship reaches a breaking point where rate hikes become irrelevant as the currency itself goes into that hyper inflation zone (E.g losing 1000% of its value a month a la Venezuela), I mean we are already in stagflation, the next step after stagflation is hyper inflation, but that is kind of a worst case scenario for SA, I don't think we should get there easily, I mean we have to really really do something stupid (Like give government the ability to determine monetary policy at will ) before we get there, but lets wait and see.

I did a small stress test today on the FNB home loan calculator, I should still be able to have my head above water if interest rates hit 22% (Hello 98 is that you?) for those of you with home bonds, I suggest you take a look over here Calculate your bond repayment and slap a nice big bad interest rate on your home bond and see if you will make it.