Potential fuel crisis?

[Guest]

We have in-depth solutions on Eskom failures.

We have water harvesting and storage.

But how do we solve this one?  http://www.bdlive.co.za/business/energy/2016/09/05/dark-cloud-over-oil-industrys-future

If this little segment of the economy is not kept current and maintained, and break down over time, the resultant effect on the economy would be catastrophic, or not?

For who in their right mind will invest when you look at "Days of our Lives in SA" soapie, with leading character Z'inc? 

We need a ZumExit.

[Guest]

Electric cars are MADE for all city folk! 

It is only an issue if you drive long distances, and only till they find a solution for it is a tough one to sort out if you have millions of cars going on holiday driving long distances all needing a re-charge at the same time.

 

But I wonder how the transportation of food and other goods to cities are going to be affected if the refineries start slipping and sliding with diesel production.

[Mark]

24 minutes ago, TinkerBoy said:

What we are playing with at work. My next car wil be a EV.

Pity about the VW in the BMW numberplate

[Guest]

We can stock up on food, most definitely, but then I always think back to a chat on a forum in 2008, when one poster said what they did on their farm to be self sustainable ito water, electricity and food. 

Then one poster dryly commented about have's (the minuscule minority) and the have not's (the overwhelming majority) when they spot said farm and ransack it.

Then the have's, have not, and the have not's still have nothing.

I so do not want to be a Doomsday Prepper nor Prophet but die dinges weet, cANCer is playing with fire on all fronts with Z'inc getting desperate.

[Guest]

That needs to extend to fuel for trucks carting food into cities?

[___]

Wenn es Krieg gibt, gehen wir in die Wüste.

That's the name of a book that I really should finish reading at some point. It's about two Germans who decide what they will do if the war starts (because they wanted to have nothing to do with it) and how they hid out in the Namib Desert for years. They'd have made it right through the war if one of them didn't need medical attention.

Anyway, so if things start going south, I'd probably aim for a sparsely populated area up North...

[Guest]

The state of our national water resources at one stage was in the news, compared to the Eskom fiasco, then it went quiet.

Population is still growing but I do not see water storage resources growing, nor being protected.

I never thought of nor considered the effect of a broken down refinery will have.

 

If you want to go sparsely populated, we discussed this also at length, it will take a small fortune to setup to be completely in dependent, till the have not's find you, or as you said, you get sick.

[___]

All I need is food and water... and to be able to see you coming from a GREAT distance...

[___]

One thing I also considered, is if you have the means or can find people to help you, is to aim FAR North, places like Uganda. Why? Those people know what Civil war looks like, they lived through it and they are more mature for it. And they have fertile land.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, plonkster said:

All I need is food and water... and to be able to see you coming from a GREAT distance...

Agreed, but there is a very dark side you need to move to in order to handle once you see me coming, for I will know you know that I know that you know I am coming. 

And I am hungry, desperate and I REALLY want what you have.

 

1 minute ago, plonkster said:

One thing I also considered, is if you have the means or can find people to help you, is to aim FAR North, places like Uganda. Why? Those people know what Civil war looks like, they lived through it and they are more mature for it. And they have fertile land.

Yes, but only until they see themselves being overrun by the have nots. Same will then happen.

 

I don't think, we, as a civil society, knows how bad it can get. They say the moment the law goes South, we as humans get quite difficult. Me, my family is more important than you and your family and we do everything we can to protect. Riots we have seen on TV news when people get unhappy, I think, is a good indication of how far we as humans can lower the standards.

 

Eskom brought to our attention what can happen if a state institution fails. But refineries, what will happen there? Can we import enough, and at what cost per liter?

[Guest]

24 minutes ago, TinkerBoy said:

Walking Dead

Me too ... in that scenario it is actually easier, as the competition for canned food is less, seeing as you are then the food source for the have nots. 

EDIT: Must say, with Walking Dead, I have a few ideas I would have liked to try like tanks, military grade protected bulldozers, harvesters on steroids ... 

[___]

21 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said:

I don't think, we, as a civil society, knows how bad it can get.

People don't know what they are capable of. I love it when militant secularists in their ivory towers tell us how we can be good all on our own and how people know right from wrong and there really is no reason to worry. Well you know what? I've gotten so angry that when I recovered some seconds later I had already bashed a large hole into a door... completely unable to stop myself. I know myself (in the sense that I know that I DON'T know myself). So good luck with that line of thinking... :-)

Seriously though, I think the solution would just be to run far enough. Put an ocean of so between you and the trouble. Go to some place cold where you're wanted. Like Nova Scotia for example :-)

[Guest]

41 minutes ago, plonkster said:

People don't know what they are capable of. I love it when militant secularists in their ivory towers tell us how we can be good all on our own and how people know right from wrong and there really is no reason to worry. So good luck with that line of thinking... :-)

Ditto.

 

41 minutes ago, plonkster said:

Put an ocean of so between you and the trouble. Go to some place cold where you're wanted. Like Nova Scotia for example :-)

Two problems to ponder:
One: You are assuming the people on the other side, is there are people there, will accept you.
Two: Going to sea has the small issue that a LOT of people will figure same, so en-route to your destination, best you be prepared for experienced pirates.

 

You must be able to deduce by now that a group of people, a long time ago, has discussed this week after week, on a forum. 

The only solution we came up with, yes, as you say, are out of the cities but in a COMMUNITY, working together for one single goal: Communal survival with enough clean water available, with farmers, doctor/s, dentist/s, medical supplies you name it ... and enough protection.

Problem with that is either you are seen as a malkop when you start it, worse if nothing happens. Or you start too late. And if you start on a large scale, someone will be watching, planning.

There is no easy solution if it is for months or years with no Checkers / PnP anywhere. You need to think of going back to basics, grow your own food and that, ask any farmer, is nowhere near as easy as it sounds for that skill has left the building decades ago.

 

If this was available in SA, it would have been an idea:

http://www.wisefoodstorage.com/long-term-food-supply/1-month-supply.html

https://www.mypatriotsupply.com/Long_term_Options_s/158.htm

To stock our own food, man, that is a art form in itself if you want things to last for years. 

 

EDIT:
Being prepared while you’re poor is a matter of knowing how to survive if things get even worse. In a bizarre sense, some of those who are poor may be better off after TSHTF than some of those who are rich with all their goodies. The caveat being that ‘the poor’ are those who are not of a government-dependent mindset, and are capable of scrapping for what they need to survive. The rich people have never ‘scrapped’ for what they need. It will be new for them, at least it will be after their ‘stuff’ runs out.

[Guest]

So lets fix the refineries, and Eskom and Reserve Bank that we as SA, can again become self sustainable so that we can weather any problems. 

[___]

10 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said:

You are assuming the people on the other side, is there are people there, will accept you.

Which is why you aim for a country where they want you. Lots of those around, places with negative population growth that needs to import skills. I didn't mention Nova Scotia for nothing... one of the easiest places to get in if my (admittedly shallow) research is anything to go by. You have a skill the want? You can have Canadian citizenship in no time flat.

Of course you have to get there, as you say. Sometimes I think the important bit is having the vision to see it coming in advance, and leave while you can still sell your house. I'm worried that this year is that year already... because if Z-inc gets his way and captures treasury... then our only hope would be a change in government in 2019.

I'm actually not convinced that a change in government would be a good thing. Well, it might be the lesser of two evils, it might be the best option we have left, but a change in government is usually not all moonshine and roses. The new guys have to get up to speed, gain experience, put totally new policies in place. You lose a few years on that. Now it takes 50 years to get anything of value done, but in Africa we change governments way more often than that.

Best version of this story is where the ruling party cleans up its house. We have the numbers right now, with a 40/40/10 split in most places. That should make for a healthy democracy... if one of the 40s would just stop messing up so they don't drop out in three years!

[___]

Also, I have the advantage of knowing some people one country up. I need one tank of Diesel to reach that country, two tanks to get where I need to go. That country has an airport too. So that's how I would go if it comes to it... not jumping on the first plane. It should work as long as we don't have a literal walking dead scenario. Now don't you guys all copy me, okay? :-)

[Guest]

EU, not so sure anymore of going there with the immigrants flooding Europe at present. And Brittian, same 

Plonk, you are going to be copied. Not because of posting here, no, because a lot of people will come to same conclusion, IF that country has not closed it's borders by then.

I know of Novia Scotia, I am working from the premise that it becomes a international problem, similar to what has transpired in Europe, and with what is potting there I THINK more countries will close borders faster the 2nd time around.

If it is just a SA problem, then yes, Novia Scotia and a few other less populated areas are best.

 

To upgrade a refineries needs some serious capital and expertise, long term commitment, and with Chevron selling off its interest locally, I bet you because of cANCer's policies and new regulations, due to no surety on what will happen in the future with those investments.

Who can, who will take over? If it is local interests, where will they find the monies if SA is teetering on the brink of financial collapse thanks to Z-Inc?

How much damage would be done by 2019? I have no idea but even the DA said it will take 10 years to fix some of their newly obtained cities. Can they last 10 years in power?

Can cANCer become the ANC again and make it work? I have no hope for that. The factions are going to pull it to pieces.

We have Eskom that appears to be sorted, but the economy is down so I think it is skewed. And then I don't think we have the full picture for how is it that all is now working again with no major capital investment to replace old for new? Koeberg is end of line, what is going to replace it?

 

I am a wee bit worried. Z-inc is desperate and are moving on all fronts, even on the banks now.

 

[___]

4 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said:

even on the banks now

With the provided disclaimer that I may be wrong, I think some of that is just showmanship. What could he/they hope to achieve by going after the banks? There is no law in the land by which such banks can be compelled to do business with friends of the president, and whatever has transpired is between the bank and the client anyway. They are private institutions and for very good reason. I am fairly certain the banks consulted their extensive legal teams a LONG time ago, and I think the government puppets who makes such statements also know this... yet they still make the statement. Why? Because it diverts attention.

I am cautiously optimistic about what is going on here, because what we're seeing is that the guys on the other end of the spectrum (who pays for the stuff government is supposed to be doing, but often don't do) is now flexing their muscles and reminding the government who is paying for all this. It's an important step needed to get things back into balance.

In many ways, this is so similar to high-risk investment (like currency trading). When that position is deep in the red and you have to decide whether you're keeping it waiting for it to bounce back, or cutting your losses. I think we will bounce back. I think there is no question about that. What worries me is the time frame. Ten years is already stretching it, and be 2020, if things are still going the way they are now, I'd probably have to seriously consider a move. Don't want to really... all the family is still here. It would really suck.

[Guest]

10 years IF they stay in power and if there is no backlash from cadres losing income in said areas due to clarification of municipal expenditure. Am wondering if riots are going to escalate, initiated and fueled by nefarious business interest to ensure cadres get back in power thereby ensuring continued off-book income streams via said municipalities.

Someone once said to me, best the existing councils members stay in place, their pockets are lined, it is now a fixed expense whereas if you replace them, new deals need to be negotiated and those can cost more, till the sharks are fed again.

From various newspapers and opinions I read, I hazard the guess that they are going after the banks to avert banks pulling another Gupta move on cadres and other questionable accounts. I bet the move on Gordhan was to stop any and all interest in what was found by the alleged rogue unit. Was in the papers for a while, then it went away. 

But if you are right, and it is all just posturing, the damage it does to the image of SA and it's ability to ensure banks and reserve bank stays above board, is not doing anything for our credit rating. And when a Judge subtly mentions the dangers of a potential tax revolt, it gets really interesting.

Unless the majority of the large corporates pull together, with the banks and reserve bank backing it all, it can become very interesting in SA to stop Z'inc.

 

The Titanic was blissfully sailing on, unbeknownst of the iceberg damage, until it was too late. And the reduction in life boats, separate issue, yet combined causing a maritime disaster of note. Is SA in the same "boat"?

[___]

5 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said:

But if you are right, and it is all just posturing, the damage it does to the image of SA and it's ability to ensure banks and reserve bank stays above board, is not doing anything for our credit rating.

Oh, don't get me wrong. There is method in the madness. They go after Ghordan and he confidently tells the top police structure in the country to take a long walk off a short peer, and then he goes to a funeral instead. I am pretty certain a lawyer somewhere looked into the law and told him to do that. In the same way, the banks have large legal teams who probably covered all bases. So I am pretty certain that both angles (going after finance minister and/or banks) are dead ends. Nothing will come of it. BUT... that is not the point. You can divert a lot of attention and buy a lot of time using such antics.

I have a suspicion the closing of the money taps by certain institutions is a deliberate attempt to hasten the inevitable. When JZ took control of the parastatals, that was the flag that a downgrade is now inevitable. There is however a slim chance of avoiding that, and that's essentially crashing and rebooting the economy in the space of three months. I suspect that is what is going on.

Once again... I may be very very wrong.

[Guest]

And I may be very wrong also.

But what if we both are right? 

[___]

Sometimes I wonder what it must feel like. You reverse your decision (or someone makes you do it) on the new finance minister and the markets react violently. You lose support in an election, and the market again reacts. You announce you're taking control of parastatals and again the market tells you in no uncertain terms that they hate your guts. You need to be stupid, thick skinned, or both, not to be affected by that. Do you just like wake up in the morning going.... Pfffft, Western Capitalist Pigs... and then go about your day? Honestly, I don't think JZ sleeps much.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, plonkster said:

Pfffft, Western Capitalist Pigs

I take this one.

For I think the other options can only apply IF you cared enough and to date that care for SA and its rainbow nation has never been seen, at least not what I could pick up.

[___]

2 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said:

care for SA

I think they (the people who think this way, no other generalisation to be inferred here) think that caring for the country and making a personal profit will automatically go hand in hand. The king takes care of his country and the country takes care of the king sort of thing. In some ways I even understand it. When you're in a position of relative power, you want to leverage that, right? In any company, the skills that you have should make the company prosperous, and that would be good for you in turn, right? So in many ways I don't really have too much of a problem when the president gets rich. It is in many ways a perk of the job. One can almost overlook the occasional scandal, as long as the ship is being managed well. If I was a skelm politician, I'd try to keep my scandals to one or two in every term... to give people time to forget...

But we both know that's not how this ship is run. The surest sign is that the sheer number of scandals and bad decisions in one 5-year period was enough to hand three new metros to the opposition.

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, plonkster said:

... to hand three new metros to the opposition.

I REALLY hope the three new DA Metro's will continue but it was wayyy to easy, the handover. I am holding my breath for a lash back.

 

A president is voted in on promises he or she made to the country. In my book, s[he] should not benefit any more than what they are paid ito a salary.

And if there is a scandal, the leader of the country, sorry, it does not compute for then I can do the same.

Do not lower you standards to Z'inc's or Africa's. We must strive for better.