With the solar energy market evolving rapidly, this question arises from a mix of current trends and future expectations. Over the past decade, solar panel prices have steadily decreased thanks to improvements in manufacturing, economies of scale, and technological innovations. However, as the technology reaches a mature stage, many are curious those who want to invest or install solar panels if a new breakthrough perhaps through novel materials or more efficient production methods could lead to a more dramatic price drop. The question invites a discussion about the balance between ongoing incremental improvements and the possibility of trans-formative changes in the solar industry.

14 hours ago, Millerdavid said:

With the solar energy market evolving rapidly, this question arises from a mix of current trends and future expectations. Over the past decade, solar panel prices have steadily decreased thanks to improvements in manufacturing, economies of scale, and technological innovations. However, as the technology reaches a mature stage, many are curious those who want to invest or install solar panels if a new breakthrough perhaps through novel materials or more efficient production methods could lead to a more dramatic price drop. The question invites a discussion about the balance between ongoing incremental improvements and the possibility of trans-formative changes in the solar industry.

Just speaking as an outside observer, layman's 2c. The drop in solar panel prices probably ended 3 years or so ago, and the major revolution since then has been the drop in battery prices.

I've seen articles indicating that raw materials alone make up around 60-70% of the cost of solar panels, and pricing is now much more driven by commodity prices than by the technological innovation, ie. it doesn't leave much more room for dropping the prices through improvements in manufacturing or economies of scale, if they still want to make a profit. You would basically need a radical innovation in using much cheaper materials or something similarly groundbreaking.

I think the way to drop overall costs from here is to incorporate solar modules into the structure of other products. There have already been innovations like solar window blinds, solar roof tiles, solar windows, or even just using solar panels as carport roofs. The next step as I see it is to roll some of these out at scale.

Edited February 20, 20251 yr by GreenFields

8 hours ago, GreenFields said:

Just speaking as an outside observer, layman's 2c. The drop in solar panel prices probably ended 3 years or so ago, and the major revolution since then has been the drop in battery prices.

 

Not so sure I can agree on this. Panels are now much cheaper than say 18 months ago. Yes they seem to be steady now and we currently seeing batteries coming down week after week. A 450W panel is now much cheaper than even a year ago when we were still having daily LS. That even with a much weaker Rand/$ exchange rate. 

4 hours ago, Scorp007 said:

Not so sure I can agree on this. Panels are now much cheaper than say 18 months ago. Yes they seem to be steady now and we currently seeing batteries coming down week after week. A 450W panel is now much cheaper than even a year ago when we were still having daily LS. That even with a much weaker Rand/$ exchange rate. 

Looking at it that way I have to agree, but then the supply crunch we had in SA as a result of loadshedding is not necessarily reflective of the global Solar industry. Graphs below are just drawn from Google searches, for China, AUS, & globally, and maybe there's some confirmation bias in it, but it does seem to suggest that panel price changes expressed as a currency value per Watt, have levelled out since the 2020's due to Silicon price increases, while lithium battery prices have been still coming down.

 

 

 

30 minutes ago, GreenFields said:

Looking at it that way I have to agree, but then the supply crunch we had in SA as a result of loadshedding is not necessarily reflective of the global Solar industry. Graphs below are just drawn from Google searches, for China, AUS, & globally, and maybe there's some confirmation bias in it, but it does seem to suggest that panel price changes expressed as a currency value per Watt, have levelled out since the 2020's due to Silicon price increases, while lithium battery prices have been still coming down.

Thanks for a great insight into the global trends. We do look at it from a different angle. If the time frame was not the last 3 years then the result will be a bit different.

Locally in the news.

"This is according to solar industry pundits, commenting on the global oversupply of solar systems, which led to solar PV panel prices dropping by as much as 50% between January and December 2023, according to the International Energy Agency.

Gregor Kuepper, MD of Solarworld Africa, points out the lower solar price is likely to remain for the next few years.

“This, combined with the decline in residential installations in the second half of 2023, created the massive drop in PV module pricing of up to 40%.”

Based on some clever guys comments I think there is still scope for lower prices but the Rand/$ might spoil the party. I think we might see a R19/$ as during January again during the year.

Price in Europe for the last 13 months below.

Edited February 20, 20251 yr by Scorp007