17 minutes ago, SilverNodashi said:

Which countries have gone all renewable, with no "old tech" backbone?

I don't  know about "all renewable".

It's presently quite topical European countries among grid operators to reconsider the whole Transmission /Distribution boundary.

This is because in certain countries the majority of generation is now on the distribution network. not the transmission network.

37 minutes ago, SilverNodashi said:

The point is, we can utilize solar during the day but we don't.

15 minutes ago, Fuenkli said:

I agree. I am sure that SA has more than enough capable people who could fix and run our electricity generation/distribution infrastructure.

We all agree. Truck loads of cash, corruption and not taking away "cANCer" profits the stumbling blocks SA faces.

But we need to have a "backbone" os some sort, and in OUR case that would be coal I guess, unless they tap into the ocean, our neighbors sell to us or the Congo rivers gets tapped.

Apparently the Congo river can supply Africa with power, someone told me once. I don't see how that can work with African politics. 🙂 

 

39 minutes ago, SilverNodashi said:

Yes it is. See my opinion above.

You make two points. One about the problems that will face us if we cannot get food and transportation, and two the fact that if your house has security lights one is safer.

So having security lights with no food to buy, may get problematic no?

And then we have the Have's and Have nots, as one will quickly switch off the security lights when you are being targeted because of "appearing" to have what the rest don't have.

 

39 minutes ago, SilverNodashi said:

... look what happened in France ...

I forgot that!!! And it is spreading! Imagine after all these years the French yet again revolting. 🙂 

But yes, that is a very good point to ponder on, when SA's masses gets gatvol and start mobilizing, making the Union's marches look like kiddies parties, now THAT would be awesome!

Edited February 13, 20197 yr by Guest

Contact of mine said this this morning, that we are in the same place we were ten years ago (2008), except we have less generation capacity now, and less money too. That puts the Zuma looting years into some perspective.

He then said something interesting about the upcoming elections: Right now approval ratings put the leading party around the midway mark, but Ramapohosa towards the three-quarters mark. That is to say, there are many people who like Cyril but don't like the ANC. What happens if Cyril doesn't (or cannot) deliver? Interesting times ahead.

28 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said:

We all agree. Truck loads of cash, corruption and not taking away "cANCer" profits the stumbling blocks SA faces.

But we need to have a "backbone" os some sort, and in OUR case that would be coal I guess, unless they tap into the ocean, our neighbors sell to us or the Congo rivers gets tapped.

Apparently the Congo river can supply Africa with power, someone told me once. I don't see how that can work with African politics. 🙂 

 

You make two points. One about the problems that will face us if we cannot get food and transportation, and two the fact that if your house has security lights one is safer.

So having security lights with no food to buy, may get problematic no?

And then we have the Have's and Have nots, as one will quickly switch off the security lights when you are being targeted because of "appearing" to have what the rest don't have.

 

I forgot that!!! And it is spreading! Imagine after all these years the French yet again revolting. 🙂 

But yes, that is a very good point to ponder on, when SA's masses gets gatvol and start mobilizing, making the Union's marches look like kiddies parties, now THAT would be awesome!

Since I have electricity, I can run a aquaponics setup and have fish and veggies

 

the next big problem will be clean drinking water. 

1 minute ago, plonkster said:

Contact of mine said this this morning, that we are in the same place we were ten years ago (2008), except we have less generation capacity now, and less money too. That puts the Zuma looting years into some perspective.

He then said something interesting about the upcoming elections: Right now approval ratings put the leading party around the midway mark, but Ramapohosa towards the three-quarters mark. That is to say, there are many people who like Cyril but don't like the ANC. What happens if Cyril doesn't (or cannot) deliver? Interesting times ahead.

The same that happened so far when those before him didn't deliver, but probably on a bigger (read, worse / more violent) scale?

18 minutes ago, SilverNodashi said:

I can run a aquaponics setup and have fish and veggies

If it is hidden, you have not told a person about it ... o wait, you just did. 🙂 We will find youuuuuu!!! 😋

19 minutes ago, plonkster said:

What happens if Cyril doesn't (or cannot) deliver? Interesting times ahead.

Ditsim! He has so much baggage (the corruption years) and the ANC factions working hard against him ... even the Unions not all on his side ito Eskom.

A solution is to sell our souls to China, let them sort the power generation. Maybe that is why Cyril is splitting Eksom.

Edited February 13, 20197 yr by Guest

2 minutes ago, Fuenkli said:

2 hours ago, The Terrible Triplett said:

Now tell me what on EARTH does THIS mean: Pravin Gordhan: Eskom to bring in external experts to tackle crisis

Really, REALLY, come on!!! That is the stupidest comment I have ever heard Gordhan utter

I agree. I am sure that SA has more than enough capable people who could fix and run our electricity generation/distribution infrastructure. Unfortunately they are all sitting at home doing nothing 🤣.

I have actually heard of this hit squad operations already. Yes they are already in place. It amounts to a bunch of people going to the likes of Medupi and asking what needs to be done. Then when they are told what has been shouted from the rooftops for for years already, this team relays the message and it is actually listened to, and there is now a budget to do it and action is being taken. 

IOW engineers are being allowed to do their jobs, and politicians are accepting that the engineers know best, (for the time being).

Probably wont last and might be too little too late.

There is a bit more to Medupi than most people know, the units were forced into production before they were properly tested and issues ironed out.

So the contractors were absolved of responsibility, and coined and are coining it, getting paid again and again to stick plasters on issues that would've never have made it to commercial production on any previous ESKOM power station.

Yes, as Pravin says it is design flaws, but what he doesn't say is the acceptance of these design flaws was a direct result of political interference. 

Oh, and you can blame Pravin personally for the load-shedding today, do you really think being so "high and mighty" in December last and insisting everything gets driven into the ground, that he wasn't told the predictable outcome? He knew better though and had to be the hero.

It was typically political that in his SONA speech yesterday, when he said he had sat down with the board and now "we" understand the nature of the ESKOM problems.

If he was honest what he should've said was now "he" understands that he actually had no clue in December.

 

9 minutes ago, SilverNodashi said:

The same that happened so far when those before him didn't deliver, but probably on a bigger (read, worse / more violent) scale?

Well, what it means is most likely one more year of an outright victory at the ballot box, then 5 more years of gradual decline... possibly accelerating as it goes on, and in 5 years... a <50% result. The balance, however, will likely not shift to moderate places... that is to say the ruling party's loss is not the opposition's gain, if you know what I mean. Which will dump is in a state where nobody can decide anything as there is no outright majority.

3 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said:

sell our soles to China

They already steal enough of our fish, thank you very much.

14 minutes ago, phil.g00 said:

... now "we" understand the nature of the ESKOM problems.

Don't buy that at all as you say seeing as Zuma said the exact same. He also went there in person.

This started with Mbeki I think, killing off Eskom future plans and budgets, re-appropriating those monies at the time.

I really think the writing is on the wall. Last small chance is Cyril and if he cannot fix it with his new team and his team with the "hit squads", magically finding millions, if not billions, it will be done and dusted in 2-5 years.

 

Edited February 13, 20197 yr by Guest

It started with political interference, 15-20 years ago.

It started when politicians, thought that ESKOM produced electricity as a by-product and that they could use it to produce other things.

Some interference was well-intention-ed like Pravin's recently, and a lot more was downright corrupt in the guise being well-intention-ed.

Some things were openly corrupt, the Hitachi -ANC connection, coal contracts, various counts of nepotism, cronyism, we all know a litany of cases.

All of this inefficiency was contributory, and the eventual outcome was/is predictable, it just boils down to who hasn't got a chair when the music stops. 

But just because the inevitable result happens on someone else's watch doesn't mean their predecessor isn't culpable.

Disappointingly, Pravin's use of the royal "we",  was to evade accountability for an ESKOM operational decision he made personally as a self-appointed general ... "we"ak.

So it does unfortunately appear that the cajones necessary to deal with the crisis are missing on this particular candidate.

Edited February 13, 20197 yr by phil.g00

I seem to remember one of the central America countries have a totally green power grid.

Investing in solar, if Eskom comes tumbling down I'm not sure anymore. After a week or two without Eskom I think having your lights on might very well create more problems than you want. News 24 just published an article saying that Eskom is technically  insolvent and on this current path they won't make it past April .

Just now, seant said:

Investing in solar, if Eskom comes tumbling down I'm not sure anymore. After a week or two without Eskom I think having your lights on might very well create more problems than you want. News 24 just published an article saying that Eskom is technically  insolvent and on this current path they won't make it past April .

That is what I keep saying. If it really is that bad, the answer isn't solar. The answer is emigration. I've now seen two cases of an entire solar system sold because the owner decided to emigrate instead.

Oz has just launched new low skills and language requirements for their Northern territories, there was very recently a family that was granted asylum in the US , most of central America is also very attractive and relatively easy to access.  Then I believe Russia was looking for SA farmers. We still have plan B options but let's get a move on now , time is running out. I don't plan on being the last one to try and flip a non functioning light switch.

13 minutes ago, plonkster said:

15 minutes ago, seant said:

Investing in solar, if Eskom comes tumbling down I'm not sure anymore. After a week or two without Eskom I think having your lights on might very well create more problems than you want. News 24 just published an article saying that Eskom is technically  insolvent and on this current path they won't make it past April .

That is what I keep saying. If it really is that bad, the answer isn't solar. The answer is emigration. I've now seen two cases of an entire solar system sold because the owner decided to emigrate instead

My prediction is that the ANC will rule that ESKOM will not be allowed to fail.

And to fund this there will be taxes, not tariffs and life will go on until next time.

13 minutes ago, phil.g00 said:

My prediction is that the ANC will rule that ESKOM will not be allowed to fail.

And to fund this there will be taxes, not tariffs and life will go on until next time.

And of course, consultants will be hired, new supply contracts will be issued, whatever has been centralized will be de-centralized and vice versa.

And the parasites that sucked it dry will continue to feed.

It's deja vu, all over again.

In England a single unemployed immigrant mother having no papers, who's kids where in a school, they all living close to the school in low cost immigrant housing, was granted via their courts the right to qualify for a free counsel house and I think other benefits seeing as her kids are already in school and they must be looked after. It is causing quite a stir as it is a landmark case opening wide that door. The frustrations of lifelong tax payers and ratepayers whom are not getting looked after themselves, appears to be of inconsequential matter.

This does not bode well for the future of Europe. Europe in MY opinion is taking strain and the media is not telling the full story of the people dealing with it on the ground daily.

 

7 minutes ago, phil.g00 said:

And to fund this there will be taxes, not tariffs and life will go on until next time.

SA can only take so much. Anglo and the large businesses has warned them sternly against higher tariffs.

Taxes, I think SARS will take a while to fix. First get what is due right now, then next step ... but more taxes could also cause muttering, Zille has warned about a tax revolt, as have others.

Maybe 20% VAT, that can work - ain't gonna fly though.

So the question after the above, if they can sort big business like Anglo, reduce Eskom employees and appease the Unions, get more taxes, do they have enough time to fix and stabilize Eskom and make it "future proof"?

Just one small very influential aspects that is affect by load shedding: This is what will happen to your cellphone signal if load shedding drags on

 

In the past I joked, Sipho and Matwetwe (2 fictitious characters living in a massive squatter camp) is not bother by load shedding as the boss must still pay their salaries, even if the company is closed. 

So no worries, not their problem as they have no Eskom at home.

The only time Sipho and Matwetwe WILL notice is when their phones are down day and night. 

And by the time the boss was forced to close the business, no more pay ... so no phones and no pay ... that would cause havoc.

11 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said:

Maybe 20% VAT, that can work - ain't gonna fly though

I doubt it will be VAT, that form of tax unfairly discriminates against the poor, aka voters.

11 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said:

So the question after the above, if they can sort big business like Anglo, reduce Eskom employees and appease the Unions, get more taxes, do they have enough time to fix and stabilize Eskom and make it "future proof"?

The government only wants to "future proof" the government.

 

14 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said:

do they have enough time to fix and stabilize Eskom and make it "future proof"?

my view is that the only way to achieve this is to privatize the whole electricity infrastructure from generation all the way to the customer. As long as our corrupt politicians in the country/states/municipalities/cities are involved it will not happen. Unfortunately this is not going to happen because the politicians would loose their jobs and the opportunity to steal.

1 minute ago, phil.g00 said:

The government only wants to "future proof" the government.

Yes, but Anglo and others recently came out and said stop ... tread carefully.
The rest of us are on the brink I would think, of how far we are going to sit on the sidelines.

And then the part of the factions inside the ANC, risk of splitting it all into a bunch of small little parties with no "agreements", along the lines of the the DA / EFF attempts.

 

1 minute ago, Fuenkli said:

Unfortunately this is not going to happen ...

Ditto!

 

I think we are witnessing a "prefect storm" building up head of steam.

2 hours ago, phil.g00 said:

So the contractors were absolved of responsibility, and coined and are coining it, getting paid again and again to stick plasters on issues that would've never have made it to commercial production on any previous ESKOM power station.

Yes, as Pravin says it is design flaws, but what he doesn't say is the acceptance of these design flaws was a direct result of political interference. 

There you go: https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2019-02-13-gordhan-launches-inquiry-into-eskoms-failing-mega-power-stations/

8 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said:

There you go: https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2019-02-13-gordhan-launches-inquiry-into-eskoms-failing-mega-power-stations/

HaHa.

https://ewn.co.za/2015/09/29/Hitachi-agrees-to-pay-R250m-settlement

 

Edited February 13, 20197 yr by phil.g00

1 minute ago, phil.g00 said:

https://ewn.co.za/2015/09/29/Hitachi-agrees-to-pay-R250m-settlement

That article was 3 years ago ... 🙂

 

Municipalities must pay ...  Why Eskom is in so much trouble

Munic's ... They. Don't. Have. The. Money. Just look at how many clean audits there are with the Munic's.

And "Eskom has been getting steep tariff increases in recent years but these have driven some customers off-grid and shut others down. Eskom’s sales have been declining by about 1% per annum. The less it sells, the higher the tariff it wants, and the less it sells — the utility death spiral."

Big business will be forced to shed more jobs if Eskom keeps on getting increases, for overall in SA and in the world, everyone is taking strain financially.

1 minute ago, The Terrible Triplett said:

That article was 3 years ago ... 🙂

And it would've been after several years of court case as well.

Please don't be so naive as to think this demise of ESKOM hasn't taken over 15 years of looting and self-serving manipulation of public and private monies.

My point is that article clearly shows the ANC were in on the ground floor with their hands in the till. In fact, they were in before the ground floor.

Pravin can't admit his own cock-up, he is not going to make his party stand up and be counted.

Blame-shifting and electioneering that is all that is.

12 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said:

And "Eskom has been getting steep tariff increases in recent years but these have driven some customers off-grid and shut others down. Eskom’s sales have been declining by about 1% per annum. The less it sells, the higher the tariff it wants, and the less it sells — the utility death spiral."

Big business will be forced to shed more jobs if Eskom keeps on getting increases, for overall in SA and in the world, everyone is taking strain financially.

While this is true, the laws of supply and demand are not unique to electricity, in fact it is relatively price inelastic. As a 1% drop in sales after a series of large annual increases clearly shows.

However, it is  S&D that is my basis as to why the future funding for ESKOM will be tax based and not tariff based.

Paying more tax is better than the alternative, an alternative whose real consequences have been personally contemplated by every taxpayer in the country very recently.

As to believing off-grid customers are the cause of the demise, that's baloney. It may be an effect, but to quantify that effect:

The entire residential load is about 20% of demand, residential load compliments industrial load nicely as industrial load peaks during the day when most people are at work. The loss of sales due to residential off-grid solar would be something like a nothing of a nothing of a percent of that. 

As much as you might want to take credit for it, sleep easy, you didn't break ESKOM.

 

 

1 hour ago, The Terrible Triplett said:

In England a single unemployed immigrant mother having no papers, who's kids where in a school, they all living close to the school in low cost immigrant housing, was granted via their courts the right to qualify for a free counsel house and I think other benefits seeing as her kids are already in school and they must be looked after. It is causing quite a stir as it is a landmark case opening wide that door. The frustrations of lifelong tax payers and ratepayers whom are not getting looked after themselves, appears to be of inconsequential matter.

That moment after emigrating, when you realize you have an opinion about a first world problem - priceless.