February 12, 20197 yr 2 hours ago, plonkster said: Ted Blom says we're closer to a 20%-out-of-service number at the present moment. The more I look at it all the more I think no-one, not one single person or any body of people knows EXACTLY how good / or bad it is. I have listen to a recent interview he held. I wondered afterwards how much does he really know? Blom had a bone to pick with Eskom ito a business deal going bad. And he is really pushing their buttons hard. But how much would they really allow him access to? "They" don't even know the full extent. Why have "they" not contracted him to help sort the problem? Who are "they"? Very good question. Me-dupe-U should have been We-dupe-you: Design flaws hobble Eskom Medupi and Kusile Power Stations It has been mentioned here on PF that the Unions "could" be behind it all after SONA's announcement: Behind Eskoms Load shedding as 6 (SIX) units fail Cyril was not even been made aware of the pending sheddings by his appointees at Eskom: Ramaphosa says SA energy situation should not be like that Eskom CEO says it could have been averted - is the CEO not suppose to be the one to make it not happen: Eskom CEO Hadebe says breakdown of 7 (SEVEN) units could have been avoided Gordhan knew neither, he was sent to have a meeting with the Eskom Execs whom I would guess did not know it was coming either, after senior managers where sent to the stations in Dec, leave being cancelled. No Leave for Eskoms senior managers They where all caught off guard ... where they? Or it was just pure bad luck ... NO! Never. It is not called bad luck if you don't do shitte and then it goes wrong. Ted Blom says 20% yet time and time again the top echelon, now Cyril too, is being caught flat footed? I don't know if we can put any numbers to it at all. It is such a huge organisation (+-50 000 people - 1/3 too many) and not even with all those bodies, with all the debt incurred to "fix" things the last 2 decades, CEO saying what he said, Cyril upset, Gordhan rushing for a meeting, can they keep Eskom going? ANC international funding was stopped when the took over ... you all did know that? The ANC's dubious Donors Now we have the fact that elections are coming, the fact that elections cost a party lot, that Eskom is state owned ... any POSSIBLE link with increases and the sudden failures right at the time Eskom is asking for more monies? Are we being played again by the ANC leaders, like with Zuma, just more finesse with Cyril? Knowing that after the ANC took over way back that they scaled Eskom down ito knowledgeable staff and stopped all maintenance and cancelled expansions plans made for SA's growth, yet the debt grew and no-one knows where all that monies really went? More and more inquiries that bring down the small fries ... what is the international involvement in all of this? Where is the money? The banks, reserve bank, SARS can trace it all. Something is off ... it smells a lot like BS. Follow the money ... NOTE: If I am wrong, Eskom will NEVER go down, we can all laugh and joke about it. Bring it on, I can and will take it with a big smile. But keep one thing in mind: What if I am not, Eskom goes down for 7 or more consecutive days ... that realization would only hit the day you think: That TTT on PF, I thought he was ___ (fill in your own word). My friends and family know me as a pessimistic optimist, a person who plans for the worst (and I don't always follow through) for assuming the best case all the time is just stupid. 🙂 You all know "Failing to plan is planning to fail"? What is your plan for when Eskom fails / goes off for more than 7 or more consecutive days? Have you EVER thought of that? The ripple effects? Edited February 12, 20197 yr by Guest
February 12, 20197 yr Medupi - - 1 Unit trip - Ash plant design Grootvlei - Ran out of coal - 3 Unit trips No diesel stocks - for Gas turbine peaking plant Hydro peaking pumped storage needs power to make power - All the H2O is at the bottom of the hill now, and no excess to pump it up. No direct sabotage - Social engineers instead of electrical engineers the engine room. Just what happens when you run out of road to kick a can.
February 12, 20197 yr 3 minutes ago, phil.g00 said: Just what happens when you run out of road to kick a can. Ditto. Where and when is this road ending in your opinion? 🙂
February 12, 20197 yr I seem to recall about 6 months ago Eskom was indebted to the tune of 360 odd billion about 100 billion less than they are currently, but yes where I think we should start following the money trail. I wouldn't be surprised if suddenly the unions were apeased closer to the elections and everyone got a fat increase at Eskom , but there will be dark days up ahead. Having avoided a run in with the unions the ruling party will secure their vote again and things won't change much . I'm hopeing we haven't reached , the I should have left a year ago stage but I get the feeling things are getting close to the point. If Eskoms other customers /countries to the north get their power grids to a higher level of production I think it will be one further nail in Eskoms coffin. With more big business and households going solar they have to charge more to get the same return, not to mention being able to service the ever expanding debt. The government has to step in to bail them out , but how with fiscal tax deficit growing more , and with less revenue brought in with the lights on dim. And not to mention the hoards of tax paying individuals and companies that have left the country. The tax pool is getting smaller but the burden on them will become more. I kind of get the feeling the golden goose is a ready dead and they are juggling the last dozen eggs and suddenly the lights are flickering.
February 12, 20197 yr 43 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said: when is this road ending in your opinion? This year.
February 12, 20197 yr 32 minutes ago, seant said: With more big business and households going solar ... It was mention here on the forum that what if CoCT and later others, are on purpose making it difficult to grid tie. If I was the Gov, I would tax you. How dare you rob my of my eggs. 🙂 I say that it gest, but either it is taxed or the panels are frequently re-distributed. 4 minutes ago, phil.g00 said: This year. What makes you say that? Gut feel or can it tumble that fast? There is still some eggs there ... I was more thinking 2-5 years.
February 12, 20197 yr 2 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said: What makes you say that? Gut feel or can it tumble that fast? 15-20 years is not fast, it would've been shorter except that ESKOM was so well run to begin with.
February 12, 20197 yr Interesting thing this political animal... namibia has had no load shedding yet
February 12, 20197 yr 22 minutes ago, phil.g00 said: 15-20 years is not fast, it would've been shorter except that ESKOM was so well run to begin with. If it is this year, then the time has left the building for people to immigrate unless they dump their homes and just move ... and no-one is going to do that. 13 minutes ago, gabriel said: Interesting thing this political animal... namibia has had no load shedding yet Maybe Cyril does "fix" it, if he does not, then it is probably over. He is the last person I recon, between SA having lights or going dark. And if he gets it going, who will take over from him once he has served his max terms ... if he is not unseated by the nefarious camp 8th of May 2019. Will the next presi be able to continue where Cyril left off? They used to plan it wot 20 (?) years ahead. Each generation following the plan the previous one put in place, with changes. Where I am going with this, is it worth our whiles to invest in solar? If Eskom hiccups and goes off, on purpose or by accident, it will mean nothing that we all have solar power in our homes after 5-7 days. Forget 30 days and longer.
February 12, 20197 yr 1 hour ago, gabriel said: Eish, the will of God is beyond our understanding in this matter.... 🤔 Is it? It is written. We have fiber. Getting SMS after SMS of them sorting the system after today's power failures. They have gennies and UPS'es at HO and all over. It is the huge influx, like all leaving a stadium after a match in a rush that is causing the bottlenecks on the system overall as all the client routers are trying to reconnect at the same time when the power comes back on. They even suggested earlier in an email a min size UPS one should get to keep the fiber equipment at home up and running to minimize the reconnecting backlog. Fragile, the bubble we live in, when we think millions of people in the same boat.
February 12, 20197 yr 2 hours ago, gabriel said: Interesting thing this political animal... namibia has had no load shedding yet Not that many people. Only about 2 million, 25 times less than this side. Second least-populated country in the world if I remember correctly. They have Hydro in the North (at Ruacana) and in the rainy season they sell some of it to South Africa and other countries. The rest of the time they import from South Africa. They have a coal station in Windhoek (it used to be called Van Eck, I don't know if that was changed). Also, there are power purchasing agreements in place, which might be why they don't have power problems yet, but it is no secret that if Eskom runs into trouble, so will they. They do however have natural gas off the coast of Lüderitz, and this might be just the kick in the pants they need to do something about it. Not that cash is really that much more abundant over there of course... and rain has been a tad short the last two years too. I'd however still move back there in a heartbeat... because even without power I probably wouldn't care... 🙂
February 12, 20197 yr 2 hours ago, The Terrible Triplett said: If it is this year, then the time has left the building for people to immigrate unless they dump their homes and just move ... and no-one is going to do that Do you remember the Rhodesian refugees?
February 13, 20197 yr It is amazing (once you are used to solar) that there is load shedding during the day in a sunny country!
February 13, 20197 yr 2 hours ago, DeepBass9 said: It is amazing (once you are used to solar) that there is load shedding during the day in a sunny country! That baffles me as well. And at night while you drive through the cities many car dealerships and shopping malls have Kw's worth of light running throughout the night.
February 13, 20197 yr 2 hours ago, DeepBass9 said: It is amazing (once you are used to solar) that there is load shedding during the day in a sunny country! As (facepalm) as that is, the fact remains renewable cannot yet be the backbone of any countries grid. But ja, I hear you. Can renewable help when Eskom must shed 4kw, YES!!! But we need to spend ton loads of cash to build a grid for that. 43 minutes ago, SilverNodashi said: And at night while you drive through the cities ... Kw's worth of light running throughout the night. As wastage as that is, it is better for all of that to be on, than off. 🙂 9 hours ago, phil.g00 said: Do you remember the Rhodesian refugees? If you are referring to what can happen in SA, we have no-where to run like they did. UN would probably be contacted and they will take years to act. Do we want that? UN peacekeepers stand accused after 612 cases of sex abuse - and that was only up to Feb 18, 2018. Now tell me what on EARTH does THIS mean: Pravin Gordhan: Eskom to bring in external experts to tackle crisis Really, REALLY, come on!!! That is the stupidest comment I have ever heard Gordhan utter because that has been the solution the last 20 years. Where is Blom!? Why did Gordhan and Cyril not implement this the day they took Eskom over! So this is same level comment as when Zuma said "I wondered, having not been here, am I telling the truth? Now I am going to tell people there will never be any load shedding, I have been here, I have seen it,” I am harping on this until someone can convince me we are not in the "end of days" ito Eskom, that it can be fixed and we just need to be strong for a little while longer. In other words: Someone must explain to me that we can trust Cyril and Grodhan - the ANC faction that currently runs the country, after the other ANC faction broke it.
February 13, 20197 yr 2 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said: As (facepalm) as that is, the fact remains renewable cannot yet be the backbone of any countries grid. But ja, I hear you. Can renewable help when Eskom must shed 4kw, YES!!! But we need to spend ton loads of cash to build a grid for that. Other countries use solar as their grid backbone. It can, and has been done. Does it coat a ton of cash. Definitely! But sadly we have greedy corrupt politicians and statesmen who steal the money before it can be implemented properly. In fact, if they didn't steal the money and take home millions for themselves, we wouldn't have had this problem in the first place. Then we would have gone over to solar "because it's the right thing todo for the environment". 2 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said: As wastage as that is, it is better for all of that to be on, than off. 🙂 I don't agree with this statement. Having worked with many 3rd party contractors, I still don't see why they always sell the client the cheapest, yet most energy hungry lights, just to get the job. A shop we recently worked at, had 60Kw worth of tube lights! We replaced it all with LED and it came down to 22Kw usage. This is before I quoted them on a solar system + battery backup to run the shop for a few hours. And then we decided to run limited lights off the battery bank to further reduce hist cost on the battery bank. Running every 4th light still lit up the place well enough to shop, and have security at night. 2 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said: Now tell me what on EARTH does THIS mean: Pravin Gordhan: Eskom to bring in external experts to tackle crisis Really, REALLY, come on!!! That is the stupidest comment I have ever heard Gordhan utter because that has been the solution the last 20 years. Where is Blom!? Why did Gordhan and Cyril not implement this the day they took Eskom over! So this is same level comment as when Zuma said "I wondered, having not been here, am I telling the truth? Now I am going to tell people there will never be any load shedding, I have been here, I have seen it,” It means they can justify stealing, I mean, spending your hard earned tax money on something that probably won't fix the "crisis" 2 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said: I am harping on this until someone can convince me we are not in the "end of days" ito Eskom, that it can be fixed and we just need to be strong for a little while longer. In other words: Someone must explain to me that we can trust Cyril and Grodhan - the ANC faction that currently runs the country, after the other ANC faction broke it. I am trying my best not to be pessimistic, but we are nearing the end very quickly. On the one side we have actual problems (my neighbor works on their equipment - I can't even begin to tell the horror stories I hear from him) and on the other side greedy fat cats who want more money to buy nice luxury cars and houses. Unless / until this matter (the greed and corruption) is sorted out, our matter won't be.
February 13, 20197 yr 11 minutes ago, SilverNodashi said: I don't agree with this statement. Ooo. I was more referring to the fact that the lights are on, not that they are inefficient old tech. All the malls around us use the latest tech lights and on top of that some of the parking lots lights are skipped i.e. enough light and not every single light in and on. 23 minutes ago, SilverNodashi said: Unless / until this matter (the greed and corruption) is sorted out, our matter won't be. So I spin my point of view to a pal, he is an attorney, and ask him why can they not follow the money trail!? Why are they throwing the minions under the bus, not going for the real problems!? My pal asks me: Who will be in charge of the investigations? The problem is the ANC is in charge of EVERY SINGLE DEPARTMENT, why on earth would they want to investigate themselves? Why on earth would the ministers that are currently sitting in parly, the same ministers who let Zuma Co continue on its merry way, why would they want to go anywhere near that fiasco. My pal used to say to me I'm negative. Jhb is doing good, people are good. SA is good. He has now done a 180, giving SA 10-15 years. Note: The majority of SA are good people, solid, but we are irrelevant because as a majority we are not doing anything to stop the minority. And THAT is the core problem we face in SA, and all over, even the USA / Europe. The majorities are not standing up and say ENOUGH! Can we, as a country, stop this and say ENOUGH? Who can lead us towards becoming the biggest baddest economy in Africa again? I see this questions has not been touched: Is it worth our while to continue investing in solar? If Eskom goes off for more than 7 days, basta us having power for lights, empty fridges, nothing to cook on that stove, no water to boil for coffee (... and no coffee). 🙂
February 13, 20197 yr 1 hour ago, SilverNodashi said: It can, and has been done. Silver, help me quick. Which countries have gone all renewable, with no "old tech" backbone? Asking because I cannot find them and there has to be some "backbone" in case of insufficient renewable's like at night during a wind-still week.
February 13, 20197 yr 58 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said: Ooo. I was more referring to the fact that the lights are on, not that they are inefficient old tech. All the malls around us use the latest tech lights and on top of that some of the parking lots lights are skipped i.e. enough light and not every single light in and on. I know, but I think they still use way too many lights for no real purpose at all. Walk past just about any clothing store and there's a 150W flood light on every 2 or 3 window dolls. Do they really, really need it on? And is so, why not switch to a 10W LED light? I know, I know, "the white light is too bright" or "I don't like the look of LED", etc. Still, energy is being wasted unnecessarily. 58 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said: So I spin my point of view to a pal, he is an attorney, and ask him why can they not follow the money trail!? Why are they throwing the minions under the bus, not going for the real problems!? My pal asks me: Who will be in charge of the investigations? The problem is the ANC is in charge of EVERY SINGLE DEPARTMENT, why on earth would they want to investigate themselves? Why on earth would the ministers that are currently sitting in parly, the same ministers who let Zuma Co continue on its merry way, why would they want to go anywhere near that fiasco. My pal used to say to me I'm negative. Jhb is doing good, people are good. SA is good. He has now done a 180, giving SA 10-15 years. Note: The majority of SA are good people, solid, but we are irrelevant because as a majority we are not doing anything to stop the minority. And THAT is the core problem we face in SA, and all over, even the USA / Europe. The majorities are not standing up and say ENOUGH! Can we, as a country, stop this and say ENOUGH? Who can lead us towards becoming the biggest baddest economy in Africa again? So, no need to answer the question of who will follow the money trail, cause, well, it's just not going to end well. But look what happened in France and other smaller countries over the last few years. The majority rioted against the government's corruption. Sooner, or later, it will happen here as well. IF Eskom were to fail, even just in 1/3 of the country, it could take 6 weeks to restart the generators - what will happen then? Most infrastructure we know and rely on run off electricity, the banks, garages, shops, internet, etc. If all of these stop working, how will we cope? Most working class people won't know how to survive without transport, food, etc. 58 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said: I see this questions has not been touched: Is it worth our while to continue investing in solar? If Eskom goes off for more than 7 days, basta us having power for lights, empty fridges, nothing to cook on that stove, no water to boil for coffee (... and no coffee). 🙂 Yes it is. See my opinion above. We had electricity yesterday while everyone else around us sat without electricity. Except for those with generators. Our neighborhood security was offline as well leaving everyone who has gotten accustomed to the false sense of security if provides even more vulnerable. I looked outside last night to see what I can actually see, as we have an open veld and dam behind our house. I could nothing. Nada, Null. None. And it dawned upon me, we have outside lights as a piece of security. Even with the other security measures, burglars generally don't operate in the light at night. 4 hours wasn't much, but what about 8 hours or 12 hours? Who's alarm and electric fence batteries would last than long? And what about the cellphone towers that we so badly rely on? Look on the mybroadband forum, a lot of fiber end-users were offline even though they had power. The fiber ISP, the network itself was down due to load shedding.
February 13, 20197 yr 42 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said: Silver, help me quick. Which countries have gone all renewable, with no "old tech" backbone? Asking because I cannot find them and there has to be some "backbone" in case of insufficient renewable's like at night during a wind-still week. I don't think they did away with the backbone but they utilize solar to it's fullest potential during the day. And then some countries have wind farms that actually work very well and some even have some energy generators in the ocean to generate hydro power as well. The point is, we can utilize solar during the day but we don't.
February 13, 20197 yr 48 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said: Which countries have gone all renewable, with no "old tech" backbone? I was about to ask the same thing. When you ask people about this, they normally say "Germany". And that is not true. Germany has lots of sun in summer, and then all sorts of weird things happen (like the energy price going negative), but on an annual basis they hardly have PV as a backbone. I'd say the closest you get would be Hawaii... where it is a significant part of the mix... but it is an Island, fuel has to be shipped in, and energy cost is high.
February 13, 20197 yr 3 minutes ago, plonkster said: I was about to ask the same thing. When you ask people about this, they normally say "Germany". And that is not true. Germany has lots of sun in summer, and then all sorts of weird things happen (like the energy price going negative), but on an annual basis they hardly have PV as a backbone. I'd say the closest you get would be Hawaii... where it is a significant part of the mix... but it is an Island, fuel has to be shipped in, and energy cost is high. friends of ours stay in the Netherlands and this is one thing he brags about a lot, their solar power and how they never have loadshedding like we do. His wife was born here so we still keep contact on a regular basis. All their cars are electric as well.
February 13, 20197 yr Just now, SilverNodashi said: Netherlands Lots of wind power over there. Not sure what their mix is. Also, in Europe there is lots of interconnecting between countries... so it is hard to really look at a small portion (smaller than our smallest province) and really say anything. For example, a while ago Germany turned off a whole lot of nuclear and the Greenies were like "Bravo! Well done!", not realising that Germany buys lots of power from France... and guess what... 🙂
February 13, 20197 yr 2 hours ago, The Terrible Triplett said: Now tell me what on EARTH does THIS mean: Pravin Gordhan: Eskom to bring in external experts to tackle crisis Really, REALLY, come on!!! That is the stupidest comment I have ever heard Gordhan utter I agree. I am sure that SA has more than enough capable people who could fix and run our electricity generation/distribution infrastructure. Unfortunately they are all sitting at home doing nothing 🤣.
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