Is it the looming general election which is causing the grid to remain so stable.

I have almost forgotten what load shedding is!

Never would have forecast this after the dire warnings about black outs and stones and sand in the coal supplies....

Edited May 4, 20197 yr by Mistral

i quote"

Eskom board chair Jabu Mabuza at a media briefing in Rosebank, Johannesburg, on the power crisis on Tuesday, March 19 2019.
Image: Alon Skuy

Eskom has spent R5bn on diesel in less than a year, running its open-cycle gas turbine peaking plants to keep the lights on - and it is becoming unsustainable.

This emerged during a briefing by the public enterprises minister Pravin Gordhan and Eskom executives on the country's electricity supply problems, held in Johannesburg on Tuesday.

Eskom board chair Jabu Mabuza said a shortage of capacity had seen the power utility increase the use of its open-cycle gas turbines as manifested by the amount of diesel it had been buying.

Mabuza said Eskom could not afford the diesel and there was no more diesel stock available in the country.

"In terms of our regulator, we are allowed only 1% load factor of usage of the open-cycle gas turbines. In rand terms, we are allowed to spend R600m a year," Mabuza said.

"However, over the past three to five months, given the problems we have experienced in terms of coal supply and unavailability of plants, we have spent over R5bn instead." 

Mabuza said the problems Eskom faced included industrial relations issues in 2018, coal supply problems towards the end of 2018 and the unavailability of some generation units.

Eskom CEO Phakamani Hadebe said the company had exhausted all diesel stocks around SA because of the amount it was buying. He said the only diesel available was that destined for vehicles and other enterprises."

 

what do you think? i expect loadshedding or in laymans terms -- stuff all power very soon

17 minutes ago, Mike said:

i quote"

Eskom board chair Jabu Mabuza at a media briefing in Rosebank, Johannesburg, on the power crisis on Tuesday, March 19 2019.
Image: Alon Skuy

Eskom has spent R5bn on diesel in less than a year, running its open-cycle gas turbine peaking plants to keep the lights on - and it is becoming unsustainable.

This emerged during a briefing by the public enterprises minister Pravin Gordhan and Eskom executives on the country's electricity supply problems, held in Johannesburg on Tuesday.

Eskom board chair Jabu Mabuza said a shortage of capacity had seen the power utility increase the use of its open-cycle gas turbines as manifested by the amount of diesel it had been buying.

Mabuza said Eskom could not afford the diesel and there was no more diesel stock available in the country.

"In terms of our regulator, we are allowed only 1% load factor of usage of the open-cycle gas turbines. In rand terms, we are allowed to spend R600m a year," Mabuza said.

"However, over the past three to five months, given the problems we have experienced in terms of coal supply and unavailability of plants, we have spent over R5bn instead." 

Mabuza said the problems Eskom faced included industrial relations issues in 2018, coal supply problems towards the end of 2018 and the unavailability of some generation units.

Eskom CEO Phakamani Hadebe said the company had exhausted all diesel stocks around SA because of the amount it was buying. He said the only diesel available was that destined for vehicles and other enterprises."

 

what do you think? i expect loadshedding or in laymans terms -- stuff all power very soon

So why are they expanding it?

What is the ANC hiding?

For me its very simple... the lights must stay on until the Wednesday vote results are published... AT ALL COSTS...

11 hours ago, Johandup said:

So why are they expanding it

as hard as it is to accept cost wise it is probably the only option we have until the mess has been sorted out. 

I think costs are not an issue until after elections...(politically) 

BUT Eskom and RSA doesn't have the money to blow it on diesel so expect loadshedding ASAP after election admin is done.  

My 2c

Lets think for a moment about this ...

1 hour ago, Mark said:

I think costs are not an issue until after elections...(politically) 
... expect loadshedding ASAP after election admin is done.

If Eskom goes down after the elections, like in seriously and consistently, not here and there, then the ANC - read Cyril - will be very VERY deep shiite because of the then lies.

Because there is only two ways the ANC can keep on being in charge of SA:
1) Keep on fixing the mess they made in leaps and bounds.
2) Become yet another dictatorial party like in some other African countries.

Problem with no 2 is that Africa - and the world for that matter - is getting gatvol of this teeny weeny dictators.
(But not me, a benevolent Dictator when I'm Pressi! You have to be a Dictator to get a bunch like you all to work together. 😁 )

 

But here is the crux the problem, here, everywhere, Eskom but a symptom. People world wide is gatvol, tired, frustrated.
Tell me, does anyone see the world becoming a place full of nice smelling roses (or whatever flower you favour), all of us singing Kumbaya (or whatever nice song you like) with smiley faces hugging and loving each other working hard together for a better future for all our children, where the rich does not get richer, the poor poorer?

I don't.

8 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said:

If Eskom goes down after the elections, like in seriously and consistently, not here and there, then the ANC - read Cyril - will be very VERY deep shiite because of the then lies.

So - have you ever see the above worry a pre-election polly before... really!

https://www.thesouthafrican.com/eskom-chinese-loan-crisis-7bn-why/

Just to add insult to injury 🙂

TTT - I agree with you.

I wonder if ANC  (and DA) fares badly in this election and EFF does well - as some polls are predicting - what can we expect in future ANC policy?

Edited May 5, 20197 yr by Mistral

eskom-chinese-loan-crisis

Not good news.

Thanks for posting Riaan!

Who is betting on Sunday for the first power cut?

 

33 minutes ago, Mark said:

So - have you ever see the above worry a pre-election polly before... really!

Nope, that is why I said, AFTER the elections. People don't care till their bubble they life in, fails. 🙂 

30 minutes ago, Riaanh said:

Just to add insult to injury

Nothing can surprise me anymore. Probably not enough of SA promised / given in return. 

27 minutes ago, Mistral said:

TTT - I agree with you.

I wonder if ANC  (and DA) fares badly in this election and EFF does well - as some polls are predicting - what can we expect in future ANC policy?

Droves of highly disappointed people moving there i.e. option 2 in other words. 

17 minutes ago, Mistral said:

Who is betting on Sunday for the first power cut?

Will be much more subtle, more finesse than that. (cwl)

6 hours ago, The Terrible Triplett said:

Nope, that is why I said, AFTER the elections. People don't care till their bubble they life in, fails. 🙂 

Nothing can surprise me anymore. Probably not enough of SA promised / given in return. 

Droves of highly disappointed people moving there i.e. option 2 in other words. 

Will be much more subtle, more finesse than that. (cwl)

That expertise, unfortunately, is now residing in other countries. 

We will be hit with a club... 

13 minutes ago, Johandup said:

That expertise, unfortunately, is now residing in other countries. 

We will be hit with a club... 

Jip, BBEEE at it's best.

But whilst we focus on Eskom, there is a Uncle Sam that is in deep drama itself to a tune of 72 Trillion Dollars = $220,000 for every man, woman and child.

And we worry about Eskom? 🙂 

Thing is if USA stumbles, Eskom woes are puny compared to the global ripple.

6 hours ago, The Terrible Triplett said:

People don't care till their bubble they life in, fails.

I think it's more complex than that. I can identify a number of factors that might cause one to stick your head in the sand:

1. Circumstances Not everyone is young, some are tied down with kids in school, or they have family members they don't want to leave behind. So all the bad signs in the world won't make you stop hoping that you are wrong.

2. Lack of opportunity. If you have an opportunity somewhere else, packing up becomes much easier. Without such an opportunity, you're more likely to hang on.

3. Timing. In many ways it is too late. Collapsing economies and failed governments are not events, they are processes. By the time you realise it might be getting too late... it is actually already too late. In for a penny, in for a pound. Might as well hang on.

If you've ever been retrenched you know how this goes. Until the last moment (especially if finding a new job is not really an easy prospect, a good analogy here), you're bound to believe that you're going to make it... that last tender you quoted on will materialise...

But I can also tell you that the moment you are retrenched the response is often relief (not sadness, anger). Finally there is certainty... you're going to have to do what it takes. And I think that is what people are doing... they are denying the reality (and let's face it, it is a process, it could still be turned around) knowing full well that when certainty arrives, they will do what it takes.

12 minutes ago, plonkster said:

... they are denying the reality ...

We all live in a bubble. 🙂 

But whilst we worry about Eskom, the USA economy, there is also this little titbit to ponder on.

AN ASTEROID (2019 GC6) skimmed our home planet passing at 12,500MPH on the 18th of April 2019 when it came closer to the Earth than the Moon NASA's asteroid trackers have revealed.

Nope, they did not see it coming till they saw it was already here. 🙂 

Edited May 5, 20197 yr by Guest

6 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said:

USA economy

4. There is no way you an outsmart all the sh*t that is going on out there... might as well just wing it 🙂

Just now, plonkster said:

4. There is no way you can outsmart all the sh*t that is going on out there... might as well just wing it 🙂

There is ... outsmarting it requires lifestyle and location change. Stopping it ... NEVER!

Me, I just keep me eyes peeled so that I don't have to say: Hey, why did no-one tell me?
Or the worst one when the SHTF: Wait, hold on, the government will come and fix it for us, just sit still. (cwl)

1 hour ago, plonkster said:

I think it's more complex than that. I can identify a number of factors that might cause one to stick your head in the sand:

1. Circumstances Not everyone is young, some are tied down with kids in school, or they have family members they don't want to leave behind. So all the bad signs in the world won't make you stop hoping that you are wrong.

2. Lack of opportunity. If you have an opportunity somewhere else, packing up becomes much easier. Without such an opportunity, you're more likely to hang on.

3. Timing. In many ways it is too late. Collapsing economies and failed governments are not events, they are processes. By the time you realise it might be getting too late... it is actually already too late. In for a penny, in for a pound. Might as well hang on.

If you've ever been retrenched you know how this goes. Until the last moment (especially if finding a new job is not really an easy prospect, a good analogy here), you're bound to believe that you're going to make it... that last tender you quoted on will materialise...

But I can also tell you that the moment you are retrenched the response is often relief (not sadness, anger). Finally there is certainty... you're going to have to do what it takes. And I think that is what people are doing... they are denying the reality (and let's face it, it is a process, it could still be turned around) knowing full well that when certainty arrives, they will do what it takes.

1. tick x2

2. no tick

3. tick

Retrenched - tick (but in the UK -) I came home to SA with the bucks ... 😯

13 hours ago, The Terrible Triplett said:

There is ... outsmarting it requires lifestyle and location change

I think a good strategy is not to put all your eggs in one basket. Make sure you have money/investments overseas and all your papers are ready if you have to leave in a hurry.

1 minute ago, Fuenkli said:

I think a good strategy is not to put all your eggs in one basket. Make sure you have money/investments overseas and all your papers are ready if you have to leave in a hurry.

Yes it is.

But in planning one should also consider what if you cannot get out, or it becomes a international problem?

So adding to you idea is to ponder on to have a looksee of what Doomsday Preppers (DP) ... without the extreme angles ... are doing. They are acquiring skills 99% of the population have lost and it is those skills that could make a huge difference AND it saves you money on a daily basis, more so than Solar power.

To this effect there are people sharing what they have lived like recently and still, in Venezuela and another from way back in the war in Bosnian. Both writers leaving some very clever tips and things they had to do. Now Bosnia and Venezuela, in both cases people could have left and I suppose a lot did. But the majority did not. They where stuck. Bosnia is now sorted but it was bad, really really bad at the time.

Generally speaking some of the websites have some pretty cool suggestions for dealing with a crisis whilst staying at home, or move to a location you have prepared to move to. But it costs a lot! They also have plans for that. 🙂 

And it is not like guns and bullets, no, more like becoming the "grey man" - the person you never see, the one who disappears in a crowd, the one that sits right under your nose and you never knew they where there living comfortably and prepared - lifestyle changes. 😉 

38 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said:

skills

Well, you need water. If you have a borehole... done. People like myself have to store large amounts, or invest in a good filtering system for the well water (I'm halfway there, reverse osmosis will get me the rest of the way).

Then you need food. That one is a problem. Can't exactly take my bow and arrow and go hunting. So you'd have to stock up on canned goods in the garage... like some people did in 1994 🙂

Transport. I figure if you're hunkering down you won't be driving around a lot. So at least keep the tank of one car full most of the time (for me it would mean topping it up weekly).

Power is sorted.

Cash... need to keep a bit of cash on hand. That's one thing I normally never do (I never have large amounts of cash in the home). Real preppers will point out that cash becomes worthless quickly when things really go bad. Then you must have stuff or skills to trade.

I still think it is best if you can get out of the city. Then it becomes a whole new ball game. Preferably some place where you can see the bad guys coming a LONG way off :-)

You can do what these guys did. When WW2 started, they realised they wanted nothing to do with it, and they moved to an area where most people would not live... they would have made it too if one of them didn't get apendicitis!

What a big loss for the ANC in the 2019 elections means for South Africa

https://businesstech.co.za/news/government/315016/what-a-big-loss-for-the-anc-in-the-2019-elections-means-for-south-africa/