@Antonio de SaAntonio, I sincerely wish a grid failure do not happen, and should that happen that you are correct and I am wrong.....

 

Compare the green line in the top picture to the grey one in the bottom picture. Funny how from 2019 Eskom's turnaround is plotted in the opposite direction of the actuals in greay. Now compare the 2019 to 2021 period of actuals in green in the bottom picture to see what happened in reality. It went down, no matter the planned turnaround strategy...... Food for thought ne.

16 hours ago, Bobster said:

Yes. But I am still angry. I go out exercising in the mornings and see all the small businesses that can't operate. I see the increased chaos on the roads. I wonder what the schools are doing to cope. 

So my lights and TV and etc stay on, and I can be blasé but this mess is costing this country big time, and that is pushing the cost of living up for everybody.

I also note increasing problems with sub stations failing when the juice is turned back on. My parents went without electricity for 12 hours yesterday. A friend ticked over the 24 hour mark today.

It's not good. How are people supposed to do their jobs and look after their families?

 

This post captures my feelings on this topic.

 

Our journey is very much an ongoing story.

2014 - I installed a 12V light system, charged from a 100W solar panel.  The only "room" still using eskom lights is the garage.  I later added a car radio for sound during load shedding.  This was not an expensive exercise, with huge benefits in terms of being able to carry on "as normal" during load shedding, at least in terms on lights and sound.

 

2014 - Geyserwise PV solar system

 

2015 - Grundfos pv poolpump ... stunning electronic equipment .... busted shaft and no spares off set any and all savings, and cant get spares.  This system have been removed over the last few weeks.

 

2016 - gas stove

 

Over the following years I tried different approaches to keep the computer and tv on during loadshedding ....  Eventually ended with a 100A.h gel battery and a Victron Multiplus.  The wife dont even know if we have loadshedding as the unit keeps the electronics going.  (charging the battery from eskom)

 

Finally bit the bullet, and our PV system will be installed in a few days.  Small system, with the primary aim to reduce our day time eskom usage.  Grid tied with reverse blocking.  This is what our budget allows at this stage.  The system is ready to be expanded to add batteries and/or more capacity as the need and budget may lead us.

 

Hindsight ..... 

- happy with our lighting system.  low maintenance

- for the rest a central system would have been a better approach.  Though the DB in the kitchen is a real bummer for these systems. This is still our big stumbling block for taking our system to the next level.

 

 

Being "okay" at home is one thing ... the impact of loadshedding in the office and for our industry is a different topic.

Edited November 10, 20214 yr by CjF

And I just found this on the EAF from Eskom, published just a few days ago.

Maybe this topic can also include those people at the other end of the spectrum who maybe can not afford a complex and expensive solar install, but who have managed to start small by going solar on their geyser, replacing bulbs with LED’s, educating the family on how to use electricity wisely etc etc etc …

Each one of these interventions can be seen as a win-win and validation as well to improving their lot on their dependency on Eksdom?, so share them here too.
 

Edited November 10, 20214 yr by MdF

4 hours ago, Sarel said:

Man, I don't know how long ago you were there. Most of the staff from 8-10 years ago left. My last bit was about 5 years ago there. At that time, only 1 plant had black start capability, with the exception of maybe Koeberg. Now they added Medupi, don't know about Kusile. The time to start and sync a few units, then maybe 2 more and again, add some load, wait to stabilise at 50hz, and so on and again....

1 Week is in my opinion, I have been wrong before, not enough, maybe 2 weeks but I am shooting for more like a month. You get say 4 units online, then try 5 and 6. They trip or something goes wrong. Now that alone may take a few days or a week to fault find, let alone repair, and only if you have parts in hand....

 

@Sarel 

The worst scenario would be if the generators go in reverse mode, (Import mode)  that would be catastrophic. But the generator and Breaker protection should avoid such an incident. I'm not to worried about unit transformers, with all the protection incorporated around  these big beast, if they are still working and not bypassed, they will survive.

let's assume we have a complete grid shutdown. together with South Africa, the grids in  Botswana, Namibia, Swaziland and the southern part of Mozambique will also collapse as they are supplied from Eskom. If Apollo substation is in fully operation Eskom get's 1000 MW from Mozambique. That should be enough to start some units strait away, the boilers that were running if the proper shut down procedure is done, they still not fully cold and can be started with a few hours let's say one unit within 2 hours, again let's assume again if the station has in storage enough fuel oil to start the burners.

So, there are allot of if's.!!!  -- the units that come gradually on line and synchronized to the grid frequency will be used to power the auxiliary load needed to start the other power stations, At this time the country still on a full black out as the energy generated is to be used to start other power stations so again If   coordinated we could see some parts of the grid back on line within 2 to 3 days and the full complement of power stations back within a week, The most important resource will be Fuel Oil to start the burners, I'm convinced that no Power Station in Eskom has enough in storage to start 6 units from Zero, So that will the biggest issue.

Edited November 10, 20214 yr by Antonio de Sa

2 hours ago, Sarel said:

And I just found this on the EAF from Eskom, published just a few days ago.

@Sarel If you worked in a power station you know well that when a unit trips the control system goes in to what we call ( box mode ) in other words all dumpers are closed to maintain as much of the boiler internal heat as possible, The unit will go in to purge mode for +_ 15 Minutes, if the reason of the trip is identified and corrected ( with the sophisticated data loggers and information systems ) incorporated in the units instrumentation and control system that should be easily discovered.

So, if not something wrong mechanically a tube leak or maybe some auxiliary component that caused the trip a unit can be back on line at about 20% full load in an hour and at +_ 50% in two hours.

Sarel, the problem is the maintenance personnel running the stations today are clueless, they have no idea of what to look for and cannot repair it. They depend on subcontractors that are not on site, have to be called out and by the time they get to the station the unit is cold and have to be ( cold start )

There are 100 + other things if I start to mention it will be like the Sunday Times 100 pages.

Lebanon's grid went offline, total collapse late October, as they ran out of fuel. So that is a real possibility locally. At least we also have Koeberg (currently on one unit) and the Hydros as well as pumped storage, some Solar and Wind. And of course the imports as you say.

So a few very recent incidents from Eskom website:

Two Eskom employees and a supplier arrested and charged with theft, fraud and corruption related to the disappearance of spares at Tutuka power station valued at hundreds of millions of rand; more arrests expected in another fuel oil crime syndicate

November 5, 2021

and

 

Kendal Unit 1 generator transformer incident

September 11, 2021

Saturday, 11 September 2021: Eskom wishes to inform the public that Kendal Power Station’s Unit 1 tripped at 03:44 on 11 September 2021 due to a failure of the generator transformer. Upon initial investigation, it was determined that the generator transformer had caught fire. The fire damaged the cables to the main cooling water system on the west side of the power station. Unit 2 and Unit 3 experienced loss of vacuum and were shut down under controlled conditions.

 

These are some of them things that will cause delays....

@Sarel the question is what caused the loss of Vacuum ? why is Eskom not giving us the really facts? a loss of Vacuum is caused by a condenser malfunction, that can only be lack of maintenance pure and simple.  A station or generation transformer is equipped with many protection systems one been the fire protection system, and the transformers at Kendal I know personally it has such a system. My opinion, I will possibly be crucified for it I think once again someone bypassed the protection system because they possibly ran out of foam and the pressure gage on the foam tanks gave an alarm, it's easier to bypass the alarm then  refiling the tank. Also it makes no sense those transformers have temperature sensor all over, oil temp, winding temp, and Buchholz relays. Eskom feed lots of BS to the public, like a few years ago the excuse of wet coal. 

Well hahaha Escam will not admit to anything, blame everything else and/or someone else.... You see my point. The fire was real, the generator transformer (very specialised, either Toshiba or ABB) destroyed. Me thinks, speculation here, that a multitude of ills cased this. Many many years of lack of maintenance, cheapest bidder sub contractor or just lazy incompetent people bypassing systems, likely as you said for nuisance alarms. And then you have the criminal syndicates as well.

On another level, there are people with an interest to run Eskom into the ground, for personal gain. They achieve that via budget allocation, or maybe rather the lack of.... Look at some of the previous boards at Escam and the criminal charges brought against them. There are outsiders involved in all that too. I used to sit in the CEO office and boardroom and the CIO's boardroom (and that included up to Shaun Maritz) on the top floor in MWP on a fairly regular basis. The things you see and hear.... I also visited all regional offices and every plant with the exception of the Hydro stations on a regular basis, weeks on end mostly, and that included Koeberg.

22 minutes ago, Antonio de Sa said:

the question is what caused the loss of Vacuum ? why is Eskom not giving us the really facts?

It's just like all the wrong stuff at Medupi and Kusile. From that same presentation:

Medupi and Kusile major boiler plant defects correction

Eskom is correcting all the major boiler plant defects (i.e., mills, gas air heaters, fabric filters, air and flue gas ducts, and reheaters) at both Medupi and Kusile.

A defect correction program was established in collaboration with the original boiler contractor, to test, develop and implement technical solutions in all Medupi and Kusile units.

Medupi Unit 3 was used as a pilot for the initial implementation of these solutions, which require extended unit outages to execute. Similar solutions were rolled out to all Medupi units and Kusile Unit 1. Effective from 2021/2022, this roll-out will be implemented on the remaining Kusile units, as unit planned outages become available.

Similarly, defect correction on the milling plants are done during planned mill refurbishment outages and as modified spares become available.

Eskom is also developing enhanced boiler plant solutions, independently and in liaison with the boiler contractor and other parties. These modifications will be rolled out during standard planned unit maintenance outages starting in 2022.

11 minutes ago, Sarel said:

Well hahaha Escam will not admit to anything, blame everything else and/or someone else.... You see my point. The fire was real, the generator transformer (very specialised, either Toshiba or ABB) destroyed. Me thinks, speculation here, that a multitude of ills cased this. Many many years of lack of maintenance, cheapest bidder sub contractor or just lazy incompetent people bypassing systems, likely as you said for nuisance alarms. And then you have the criminal syndicates as well.

On another level, there are people with an interest to run Eskom into the ground, for personal gain. They achieve that via budget allocation, or maybe rather the lack of.... Look at some of the previous boards at Escam and the criminal charges brought against them. There are outsiders involved in all that too. I used to sit in the CEO office and boardroom and the CIO's boardroom (and that included up to Shaun Maritz) on the top floor in MWP on a fairly regular basis. The things you see and hear.... I also visited all regional offices and every plant with the exception of the Hydro stations on a regular basis, weeks on end mostly, and that included Koeberg.

It's an ABB transformer, all Kendal Power Station the control and instrumentation was all ABB, the boilers were American made I think Combustion Engineering no longer in business the first dry cooling station in South Africa. It worked like a dream for over 30 years.

3 hours ago, Antonio de Sa said:

@Sarel 

The worst scenario would be if the generators go in reverse mode, (Import mode)  that would be catastrophic. But the generator and Breaker protection should avoid such an incident. I'm not to worried about unit transformers, with all the protection incorporated around  these big beast, if they are still working and not bypassed, they will survive.

let's assume we have a complete grid shutdown. together with South Africa, the grids in  Botswana, Namibia, Swaziland and the southern part of Mozambique will also collapse as they are supplied from Eskom. If Apollo substation is in fully operation Eskom get's 1000 MW from Mozambique. That should be enough to start some units strait away, the boilers that were running if the proper shut down procedure is done, they still not fully cold and can be started with a few hours let's say one unit within 2 hours, again let's assume again if the station has in storage enough fuel oil to start the burners.

So, there are allot of if's.!!!  -- the units that come gradually on line and synchronized to the grid frequency will be used to power the auxiliary load needed to start the other power stations, At this time the country still on a full black out as the energy generated is to be used to start other power stations so again If   coordinated we could see some parts of the grid back on line within 2 to 3 days and the full complement of power stations back within a week, The most important resource will be Fuel Oil to start the burners, I'm convinced that no Power Station in Eskom has enough in storage to start 6 units from Zero, So that will the biggest issue.

Just out of curiosity would the HVDC line to Mozambique not be down also as if I am not mistaken, Mozambique and RSA are still AC Coupled through other lines. 

My knowledge of electricity is minimal(please dont judge me 🤣), i am though passionate about such things and quite curious.

2 hours ago, Antonio de Sa said:

why is Eskom not giving us the really facts?

4 hours ago, Antonio de Sa said:

it's easier to bypass the alarm then  refiling the tank

I would like to see what the daily log book looks like for unit 1 for the last 3 months. The log book will tell the real story. Or perhaps was the log book conveniently destroyed in the fire because that system was also disbanded when things got bypassed.

I feel more validated than most, as I'm one of the very early adopters.

> 10 years now on solar/ offgrid

 

Next year is going to see a lot more load shedding once Koeberg starts getting refurbed. 970MW will be offline for up to a year (maybe longer).
Plan is 5 months per unit, which is 10 months, but imho if we're lucky... a year.

Solar panel costing is going to go up soon - Panel pricing will rise as silicon ingots have gone up about 30%.  That will start to hit early next year I think, probably after CNY.
Shipping costs have also gone up drastically, lots of friends are complaining about that.  Container costs to port have had massive cost increases, and I truly mean massive, not the mybb "massive"!

At least battery pricing has dropped..

 

If you haven't already gone offgrid or bought a system, now would be the time to do it...

 

I feel 100% vindicated that I chose NOT to install batteries 6 years ago, but grid-tie only. My payback was initially calculated at 8 years, and thanks to Eskom's generous price increases, I consider it to be paid in 6. This would NOT have been possible if I had bought batteries back then, they would have been under-used and wasted. Today, however,  prices and technology are much more favourable, and Eskom's demise is more imminent. Time to make a move.

 

Afternoon All.

I'm always amazed that even during todays rainy and cloudy conditions and with loadshedding currently on, my solar pv is still enough to run the house and put some energy into the batteries 😉

MdF

 

2 hours ago, MdF said:

Afternoon All.

I'm always amazed that even during todays rainy and cloudy conditions and with loadshedding currently on, my solar pv is still enough to run the house and put some energy into the batteries 😉

MdF

 

Oh hell yeah, and with LS hitting again in just over an hour and then again at midnight then 9 am i know we should be find to get through all those without needing to top up from the grid.

Given the current situation (load shedding + terrible weather) it just re-enforces my plan to expand my current system beginning next year. During this year I intend to not just save the money but add solutions (like gas stove / geyser timer) to further assist. I'll probably never go completely off-grid. Just knowing that the family can function and we can work from home with no interruptions is enough for me. Saving on electricity is a bonus.