Eskom's Got it right again!

[Mike]

I quote:

 

Johannesburg - South African power utility Eskom has been given permission to adjust rates next year above the 8 percent increase already granted, the National Energy Regulator (Nersa) said on Wednesday.

[Wetkit]

They a bunch of monkeys

 

First they say there is a shortage so we should use less and please industry, do not expand.

Now they claiming loss of revenue due to lower electrical consumption.

 

We still have to pay double too, either directly or via tax.

And the top brass is still getting their bonusses every year.

 

I wonder how many Rbn's Madupi is now overspent and how many years behind schedule?

[Mike]

here is what next years surprise increase looks likely to be :

 

a 5% on top of the 8% bring it to 13% increase for next year.....

[Semloji]

Have a look at this, "Municipalities owe Eskom more than R10bn - Gordhan"

 

http://www.polity.org.za/article/municipalities-owe-eskom-more-than-r10bn-gordhan-2014-08-11

 

I was supprised to find Western Cape Gov and Cape Town in the mix, owing so much.

This also causes the prices to go up to carry the costs.

[Semloji]

baseload fallacy.

 

EDF in UK has today begun unplanned shut down of 4 nukes = 8GW = 10% of total UK energy demand for 8 weeks to fix a fault.
The national grid operator said they can cope because "a lot of wind power is being generated right now". (Ft.com).
This turns the wind=intermittency/nuclear=baseload argument on its head.

 

Thanks to wind Power

[Semloji]

Here's something else Eskom may have to deal with in the future

 

The combination of low demand and strong output from the Queensland

[___]

It's already happening.

 

http://www.iol.co.za/news/south-africa/western-cape/cost-of-saving-electricity-1.1737562

 

Also, regarding CoCT owing Eskom so much, that actually includes amounts in the < 60 day bracket, so they are within their payment terms. From what I've read, CoCT extends the same kind of payment terms to their own customers. If you exclude that, you may find that Cape Town is up to date. So says the Mayor anyway.

[Mike]

what gets me is they now are complaining the public are saving so well, that it now will affect their ability to give "free "to ??? and we must just continue paying exorbitant prices and expect more increases as there client base is shrinking....

 

ok rant off 

[___]

I knew that this was coming.

 

I believe the old "freakonomics" principle is that when you level a tax on a cup of coffee, the net result is that the cups get bigger. There system always reacts in ways that resist change (that sounds ominously like Lenz's law :-) ).

 

So when your funding model depends on essentially taxing one consumer to provide for another, the system is going to react. As the price goes up, the incentive for saving/going solar increases. Guess who can afford to buy that nice A++ rated fridge, replace all the lighting in the house with low-cost LED lamps, install that solar geyser, put up the PV panels.... the home owners (tenants generally don't do it, owners generally don't bother doing it for rental homes).

 

Something that I'm presently mulling over... when does battery storage start to make sense? If you already have the solar panels and the inverter and you ignore the cost of the non-battery components (which you probably shouldn't, but this is a thought experiment), when does it start to make sense to store your surplus power in batteries rather than use it from the grid?

Well, if a kilowatt-hour costs R2.13 (as it will in Cape Town next year for domestic users in the >=600kwh bracket), and you use a battery with 1500 cycles, then the battery must cost less than R3200 per kilowatt-hour storage.

 

Presently a 700Ah 2V tubular cell costs R3400. ASsuming 70% efficiency and 50% DoD, 700*2*0.5*0.7 ~= 0.5kwh. So we're about halfway there. At 13% a year, we need 6 years to get there.

 

A Trojan T125 battery (240Ah at 6V) costs R2500 about, and stores around 0.5kwh too (6*240*0.5*0.7), but will likely only last 1000 cycles, so the cost you have to beat is R 2130.

 

Of course you also have to keep in mind inflation causing battery prices to go up. Supply and demand will also kick in at some future point.

 

At least in some parts of Europe there is already cases where it makes more sense to use battery storage than sell to the grid.

 

Of course all of this means that the people who can afford to generate (and store) their own electricity will leave the funding party.

 

Expect to see a "connection fee" return to the pricing structure in future :-)

 

EDIT: I just realised the 70% efficiency figure is for charging, not storage (where you only need to consider self-discharge), so the numbers will be slightly better.

[Guest]

Eskom cuts off private power:  http://www.bdlive.co.za/business/energy/2016/07/21/eskom-cuts-off-private-power

 

EDIT: My one staff member in Germiston told me tonight that for the last 2 months he has had 2-3 power failures a week for 2 months each lasting 4-8 hours.

I never knew thanks to me giving him a UPS last year with 2 x 12v 105ah deep cycle batteries. They are still preforming on spec. No not Deltec or Royal or Excis types. Ek weet mos hulle hou nie, gave him really good ones for UPS. 

Ja, I told him to first get a Axpert, and then, once he has learned about solar, then he may talk to me about Victron. 

[___]

I heard that story. Look, in some ways I understand completely why they do it. It's not personal, it's business. It's also because of poor performance in that business. When you're struggling to complete your new coal plants and then you have these little fox-terriers making cheap power and completely messing up your business plans, why in the world would you make matters worse for yourself and buy even more of that cheap power? Especially if you are in control of distribution, then you simply kill the market by not accepting any more of it.

It's a disaster of course. As someone pointed out on Cape Talk/702 yesterday, these projects are creating hundreds of jobs in the Northern Cape. In many instances it's the saving grace of these places.

Probably not the place to talk Politics, right? I look at all the stuff that's going on, this nonsense with the SABC, the Concourt finding on nkandla, the spy-tapes, SAA, Eskom, all seem to be last-ditch efforts, every court case is fought to the highest court and lost in every one of them... one cannot imagine that this sort of thing can be good (for the party in question) in an Election year. I am hoping that it's not going to be (good for them). I don't actually want them to lose. I want them to almost lose... I want them to get 55%. That would be the perfect ultimatum: Stop jou k*k... óf...

[DeepBass9]

They are doing it to protect their monopoly though which is wrong. If a private business did tha,t the competition commission would sort them out. They are supposed to be a state owned enterprise so they should do what is best for the country, not themselves and their connected buddies. 

[Guest]

I have a story to tell where all characters and references to any, are fictional.

There once was a time in a far far land where a national broadcaster made decisions to not tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, starting on a well planned schedule before an election. Timing was everything.

It was driven by a very shrewd individual who understood that desperate times need desperate measures and a ban on more bad news around this party must be stopped before said elections. This was done with the full knowledge that it will be contested and declared unconstitutional in the highest court, but he knew that by the time it is resolved, the elections would be over and then a hero can step forward, saving the day by battling the big bad broadcaster in a fierce contests of wills, slaying him in a spectacular way, to ride off into the sunset, our hero!

Obviously not all the friends of the family could be let in on this little plot for a certain property deal caught a lot of people in a bad spot when a 180 was done on said friends and family when the deal went south.

However, it is said that if this party does not win said elections, that there will be a run on popcorn, so stock up now, for everyone would want to see the next season called Season 2 - The Bad Losers. Season starts at the end of Winter 2016.

There is a 3rd season planned: Eskom The Power Be with you - it is all about a party that for decades enjoyed international funding but once they stepped up into the driving seats they found out the income sources also dried up. So they had to find new sources of income to fund the free T-shirts, the pre-election food parcels and all the other lavish expenditure and parties for the people by the people, saving the rest in safe tax havens all over the globe.

This season will show you, the viewer, how you can use such institutions to your own nefarious benefit in a take one, get one free scheme.

Authors Note: All characters and references to any, are fictional. All the above is but a figment of my imagination.

[Guest]

http://www.bdlive.co.za/business/energy/2016/07/22/eskom-decision-alarms-market

I wonder if all the "rich" go off-grid, if there will be new taxes and levies?

[Mike]

you can bet your bottom dollar there would be. i see they are bringing in the sliding scale tariff out in my part of the world and changing all prepaid meters to the new plc type.... what awaits us, i wonder?

[DeepBass9]

So the 'rich' and the poor will be off grid. The middle class will get screwed to pay for it all as usual. 

[Guest]

41 minutes ago, DeepBass9 said:

So the 'rich' and the poor will be off grid. The middle class will get screwed to pay for it all as usual. 

Jip, we herewe  are the rich. Let them eat cake ... (rofl)

[Guest]

Very interesting take on why they are drawing the line on renewables: http://www.rdm.co.za/business/2016/07/26/why-eskom-s-brian-molefe-is-pumping-up-the-nuclear-propaganda

[Guest]

@plonkster you may have been spot on re. Cape Town and its plans: Cape Town wants to control its energy future

[Guest]

Wonder if there are going to be power failures? http://www.bdlive.co.za/national/labour/2016/07/29/eskom-wages-strike-will-damage-business-union-threatens

 

[Guest]

Interesting that Government, who owns Eskom, pushed BBE, does not practice what they preach ito remuneration: http://www.bdlive.co.za/national/labour/2016/08/10/cosatu-blasts-eskoms-intransigent-attitude-over-salaries

Wonder if they do strike, what the impact will be ito power failures.

[Chris Hobson]

I think they should strike the quicker this country hits rock-bottom the quicker a new government will be ushered in. 

[Regie]

OK. Power went off 8h30 in Vasco. They wont call it loadshedding

[Guest]

I read this: http://www.mejela.com/batteries-power-uk-switch-to-renewables/92880/ 

And this: http://www.bdlive.co.za/business/energy/2016/08/29/brian-molefe-hardens-stance-against-independent-power-producers

Now this makes a lot more sense why Eskom is fighting green energy, they know what is coming:  http://www.bdlive.co.za/business/energy/2016/08/29/electricity-will-continue-to-cost-the-earth?cx_tag=bcuf

Ag, am just speculating. 

[SilverNodashi]

It also makes one wonder why Makro is busy going completely offgrid. Their 3rd store is now being converted. Many of the "Life" hospitals in Gauteng are also going totally off-grid. Many car manufacturers and shopping malls as well. These are all "megawatt" solar plants. They obviously know something we don't.