What I think about - in VERY simplistic terms with some authors freedom taken:
1) SA is in serious debt because of, large part, Eskom. SA has and still is paying for people to enrich themselves at SA's peril, risking a entire country for greed.
2) The Unions are standing firm ito employment for their members putting SA at risk as SA cannot afford that.
3) To fix Eskom now and start the future required expansion, is going to costs a lot more and SA does not have the funds for that.

To privatize Eskom, point 2 and "who stays in charge of SA's politics" stands in the way.
And who in SA has the clout to drive to fix Eskom, rebuild it to a new glory?

(Even the guy they got in to fix the Post Office has now resigned.)

So, what if:
1) Eskom fails completely? SA is gonners.
2) If Eskom fails partially i.e. rolling blackouts, SA will eventually be a gonner as more and more businesses will fail daily.

Our entire economy is built on a stable supply of electricity.

Conclusions: (Tax payers being private and Co's)
1) If the people that are enriching themselves are not stopped and brought to justice very fast, some of the monies recouped, we, the tax payers paying for their enrichment, we, the tax payers are going to be bled dry over decades.
2) If the Unions don't back down and become part of the solution, we, the tax payers are going to be bled dry in years.
3) If Eskom fails, we, the tax payers are not going to be paying anymore taxes ... as we won't have a job or a business.

So that IMF loan sounds like a very good idea about right now ... but hold on, privatization of Eksom?
Does anyone see the Unions going for that?
Or strikes, here we go again.

 

Can ANYONE tell me how one can see a light at the end of this tunnel?

I have one:
I see that the Minority is ruling the Majority here. We, the Majority i.e. every person and every business using Eskom, we should stop and say: Enough!

Each and every one of us and every business in SA must push each and every political representative in every corner of SA, to focus on and sort out, the 1st being Eskom, on the list..

We need to start that process today! And we need to keep pushing political representatives in our areas day after day until it is done. I mean, we voted for them!

But that won't work, will it? We have mouths to feed, jobs to go to, bills to pay ... 🙂 
 

Edited August 8, 20197 yr by Guest

6 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said:

To privatize Eskom

I agree Eskom will not be privatized soon (unfortunately). What will probably happen is that more and more IPP will emerge and slowly take over from Eskom. There is a lot of money in this business and politicians will not be able to stop the market forces.

1 hour ago, Fuenkli said:

What will probably happen is that more and more IPP will emerge and slowly take over from Eskom.

As long as they are not "blocked" ito licensing and permits or non-payment of electricity sold.

But being positive, if more IPP's do come "online", how does one deal with the unstable renewables like wind and solar? 

Storage of power is the biggest hurdle, when there is no wind and insufficient solar, and a country needs power.

I would thing that they will do on a large scale, what each of us here does on a small scale, i.e. balancing loads, storage and production. It's not an insurmountable problem as they currently balance coal, hydro, nuclear, pumped storage and wind. They just need to change the behaviour of consumers, so encourage large users to use solar energy in the day, and locate their businesses close to the point of production. Tariffs and tax incentives can be used to do this. It seems though that Eskom is too far behind on these issues to catch up again. 

2 hours ago, The Terrible Triplett said:

But being positive, if more IPP's do come "online", how does one deal with the unstable renewables like wind and solar? 

I don't know HOW, but I know it can be done. The UK is now effectively running without any coal, running on a mix of renewables and nuclear. So clearly there is a way to balance things out, but probably they have a large over capacity. Also they have IPPs selling into the grid, and the end user can decide which IPP he wants to buy from. Don't ask me how the purchasing is balanced. After all, they all pump power into the same grid, and the meter in your house doesn't know who generated a particular volt. But, again, it happens so there is a way to keep the providers happy.

1 hour ago, DeepBass9 said:

They just need to change the behaviour of consumers, so encourage large users to use solar energy in the day, and locate their businesses close to the point of production.

Haha! I can think of some smaller users who could modify their behaviour. One friend of mine is given to turning on EVERYTHING after a load shed, just to show Eskom who's who in the zoo. 

In the round, I believe in the power of getting lots of people to make a small change. The accumulated change will be significant. So turning lights off in rooms you don't use, not endlessly reboiling the kettle until you eventually make a cuppa. All the little things that Eskom and City Power ask us to do: If we all did those then the total affect would be huge.

Caveat: From one POV, Eskom don't want us to save electricity, because the more we save the less they can bill. So the price of improved reliability is going to be non-trivial rises in tariff.

3 hours ago, The Terrible Triplett said:

So that IMF loan sounds like a very good idea about right now ... but hold on, privatization of Eksom?
Does anyone see the Unions going for that?
Or strikes, here we go again.

To quote Sipho Pityana, either we prescribe our own medicine, or someone else will prescribe it for us. The reason that some are beginning to think that the Austerity measures that comes with an IMF loan might be a good thing is precisely because it ensures, as a last resort, that the medicine will be prescribed.

The IMF does give you a chance to state your own case. They do allow a country to have a say about what things are important to them (for example, our government might want to try and save the NHI plans). It really is a bit like going into debt review or business rescue: Someone else comes in and tells you how to run the place.

If you don't want that... then come up with a better plan.

There is of course also the other option: Promise whatever needs promising to get the loan, then don't keep the promise. There are countries who have done that. South Africa however still has a good record of WANTING to pay. What they are beginning to have trouble with is the ABILITY to pay.

Also, this can become much more serious through no fault of our own: Old Trumpie and the China wars is a good example of how things outside our control affects us. I hear two days ago he accused the FED of incompetence for not cutting interest rates sooner. Cutting interest rates normally sends money into higher-yield (higher risk) foreign investments (ie us), but somehow this country always seems to "cash out" the lucky breaks that comes its way. As an example... remember how much cheaper our fuel was when the oil price dropped to 26USD per barrel? Me neither.

18 minutes ago, Bobster said:

mix of renewables and nuclear.

Therein the crux ... "mix of". And nuclear in SA ... 🙈

5 minutes ago, plonkster said:

Old Trumpie and the China wars is a good example ...

Speaking of outside our control.

It is alledged that China has just devalued their currency on purpose, because of the Trump Wars.

On top of which the US farmers have never experienced a years quite like they have so far:
End of 2018 record snow and what  follows.
First half of 2019 endless rain and unprecedented flooding resulting in millions of hectares of prime farmland not planted this season.
With 10's of millions of other hectares not going to yield the norm. 

Some foods are already running short in stores over in the USA.

And then to on top all of that off for the farmers there, the Chinese announced that they were going to completely stop buying U.S. agricultural products.

Some of that is going to spill over to SA adding to our woes.

22 minutes ago, plonkster said:

What they are beginning to have trouble with is the ABILITY to pay.

Therein our 2nd problem, after not having a mix of renewable and non-renewable power sources.

Well, for me it is simple. I'm waiting as long as I can. By the end of it I might have to sell the house at a loss. Fine, then that is that. That's what I have decided.

What's my pick-up-and-go trigger? The reserve bank. If the reserve bank is nationalised or otherwise interfered with so that our debt can be "inflated away", that's when its time to get out.

So keep your ear on the ground. There's already noises about changing the mandate of the reserve bank or nationalising it. Also, when Kganyago is replaced, consider his replacement carefully.

20 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said:

Some of that is going to spill over to SA adding to our woes.

Correction: Some of that has spilled over to SA and is adding to our woes.

43 minutes ago, plonkster said:

Well, for me it is simple. I'm waiting as long as I can. By the end of it I might have to sell the house at a loss. Fine, then that is that. That's what I have decided.

What's my pick-up-and-go trigger? The reserve bank. If the reserve bank is nationalised or otherwise interfered with so that our debt can be "inflated away", that's when its time to get out.

So keep your ear on the ground. There's already noises about changing the mandate of the reserve bank or nationalising it. Also, when Kganyago is replaced, consider his replacement carefully.

So Kyanyago has had his term extended to another 7 years. NHI will be implemented fully in 2025. Nicely scheduled out for you! 

1 hour ago, plonkster said:

What's my pick-up-and-go trigger?

I'm not sure where one could immigrate to that:
1) do already have their own woes fro similar reasons as SA,
2) are not going to have their own woes same as SA is having,
3) or if into Africa, a country that may very well be very much affected by SA failings,
4) of a country that is not then already flooded by immigrants.

Where in this world is there a nirvana for immigrants from another "then" failed African failed?

And then we have the weather affecting a lot of countries like Australia, having to import due to droughts for the 1st time in 12 years.

Me, I contemplating picking up a farm for a apple and a onion 200km from the nearest town all round settling there truly off-grid ... with internet and Netflix and all that ... ai, see, there my coffee is cold AGAIN!! Dammit! 🙂 

1 hour ago, Bobster said:

Some of that has spilled over to SA and is adding to our woes.

True.
 

33 minutes ago, The Terrible Triplett said:

I'm not sure where one could immigrate to that:

Yup, by 2025 my age will also start to close the window on me. But I'm heading for Europe, that is the plan. I'm actually thinking of maybe getting an idea to maybe consider obtaining property there... or something. It's a possibility. That's always a way to get into another country. Places like Cyprus welcomes you if you buy a house for example!

Central and south America is worth considering if you're looking for a bolt hole without too many serious problems. At the moment it's still relatively cheap and easy to get residency

Most of my work is done for  companies operating in the DRC, so RSA is just fine thank you.

2 hours ago, The Terrible Triplett said:

 

Me, I contemplating picking up a farm for a apple and a onion 200km from the nearest town all round settling there truly off-grid ... with internet and Netflix and all that ... ai, see, there my coffee is cold AGAIN!! Dammit! 🙂 

True.
 

Its not such a bad existence. Off grid with satellite internet you can survive just fine!

19 hours ago, DeepBass9 said:

Its not such a bad existence. Off grid with satellite internet you can survive just fine!

Jip, you can, and for a city boytjie it will be a awesome lifestyle change! Which I think would be good. 

21 hours ago, plonkster said:

But I'm heading for Europe, that is the plan.

Mmm ... ok. 🙂 

21 hours ago, plonkster said:

 But I'm heading for Europe, that is the plan.

I too have drawn the line. When 1 USD hits 20 ZAR is when I plan to sell all and leave.

I have friends that come from Zimbabwe who were living comfortably (in the eighties or there abouts) and before they could wipe the dirt out of their eyes  their 1 million Zim$ was worth 10 US$. I did not work all my life to have the same happen to me.

You know what guys and gals, here is an idea: Make the Western Cape a Republic!

So when I am pressi, we will:
Built a wall.
Install a turbine in the tunnel. So free power to all.
Some desalination plants - that turbine see, and Koeberg.
... and a few other changes off course.

So don't immigrate, vote for me as Pressi and we start our own success story right here in the Western Cape, Cape Town.
Only requirements are: You want to be live here, want to work, are a ok person with no criminal intentions.

TTT when you're pressi then I'll come back but for now we're off to see different parts of the world

2 minutes ago, seant said:

TTT when you're pressi then I'll come back but for now we're off to see different parts of the world

Deal! Enjoy the travels Seant!

21 hours ago, GVC said:

I too have drawn the line. When 1 USD hits 20 ZAR is when I plan to sell all and leave.

I have friends that come from Zimbabwe who were living comfortably (in the eighties or there abouts) and before they could wipe the dirt out of their eyes  their 1 million Zim$ was worth 10 US$. I did not work all my life to have the same happen to me.

Been there done that. I think it's time I'm not waiting for 20 to 1 , because the next week is 25 to 1 and by the time you've sold your house and booked your flights it's 100 to 1. Now that hurts the foreign bank account

23 minutes ago, seant said:

20 to 1 , because the next week is 25 to 1

There is that and then there is 20 to 1 down to 25 to 1 and then back to 15 to 1 the week after.

I just cannot find that benchmark "line" I can draw in the sand.

Seems to me there must be a few "lines" that need to merge into one to be able to guess the next move at the right time and win.

Just have no idea where and what those "lines" are.

On 2019/08/08 at 2:30 PM, Bobster said:

I don't know HOW, but I know it can be done. The UK is now effectively running without any coal, running on a mix of renewables and nuclear.

As per recent reports, the mix includes gas fired plants. 

There are reports because of a substantial blackout. A gas fired plant and an offshore wind farm went off line within 2 minutes of each other. 

The buck is being passed. The grid operator says its not them and look how well their protection systems worked. The guys who own the gas fired plant are talking vaguely about "wider system issues" and say their shutdown was a "routine" response to a technical issue (no details given). 

These systems can be quite fragile. It's amazing that they deliver as reliably as they do. Managing a grid is not easy, it seems.