When do you think loadshedding will come back?

[Joshua G]

Is it still worthwhile to have a solar system?

[Arandoza]

There are other reasons to consider solar :

1) Cable theft

2) Old infrastructure failing.

3) eskom increases of 12% per annum out pacing inflation.

and so on.

 

If you have the space and budget and it your consumption fits into a reasonable costed solar solution, I think its worthwhile moving in the solar direction for the following reasons:

1) lock in the cost of power.

2) Reduces your consumption from eskom at higher rates every year. So effectively any costs you would have had for eskom power can now be allocated to your solar system.

3) cable theft and eskom failures, load shedding   are not as much of a problem, you can typically get thru them, and recharge the following day?

4: Electric Vehicle charging if thats something you are considering?

 

Overall I think most folks who implemented solar will never go back and would rather try and move as far off grid as possible over time.

However it does cost, and if you have limited space like in an apartment or simplex unit or live in a complex, or residential estate, there maybe space and aesthetics issues consider as well, which may limit the effectiveness of implementing solar.

 

 

[Steve87]

I live in Honeydew, often cable theft & just poor infrastructure. Sometimes 5 days no power. It's a very worthwhile tangible insurance policy. 

Also if you track the exponential tarrif increases you save in the long run. One needs to get into the market having these foundations at the back of your mind. 

[JayMardern]

If you're only looking to beat Load Shedding, a cheap inverter (with a lithium battery) to match your essential demand during load shedding will do the trick. I ran this for 9 years (albeit with a lead-acid battery which I'd absolutely not recommend for this purpose). Like this, we were only without lights twice in that time; works great. A system like this is a small capital outlay - but won't ever pay for itself. You'll replace the battery once every decade.

 

Solar is for a different use-case: solar is for a system that provides immunity both from load shedding and grid unreliability in general; and also pays for itself (and generates profit thereafter); provided the system is appropriately spec'ed for the use-case. This is a large outlay, but will pay for itself. You'll also replace components on occasion (batteries for example, once a decade).

 

The other thing to keep in mind is that, even if your solar system still requires you to utilize some grid, your electricity bill savings on a solar system are two fold:

1. Units generated directly from the solar system (as opposed to being billed from the grid)
2. The reduction in your average per-unit cost from the grid, because it'll put you in a lower usage step. (eg. the cost of your first 500 units are cheaper than units 500-1000 in a given month). This makes a bigger difference than many realize!

 

[Bobster.]

3 hours ago, Joshua G said:

Is it still worthwhile to have a solar system?

Yes. Certainly in Johannesburg or any other city where infrastructure has not been maintained and stuff just fails. Also there is still cable theft going on. 

We've also seen in Johannesburg how electricity fees are going up, and they're going up everywhere else too. So you can reduce what you pay for electricity, there's a saving to be made.

Look at your bill. Look at the tariffs that apply where you live. Assume you can generate 80% of your electricity needs over the year, add escalation in the cost of electricity for the next 5 years and see if it looks like a worthwhile proposition to you. If load shedding returns (I think it will, but not as badly as previously) then you have something that is valuable but harder to put a rands and cents value on IE the ability to keep vital electricity circuits powered up. Your lights will always be on, so will your TV, wifi, security, fridges...

I think the case is harder to make with no load shedding at present, but there is a saving every month, and it may become viable to sell back the way the tariffs are rising.

[Bobster.]

Also decide what you want. If you just want to keep a few lights and the TV on during a shed, then a simple trolley system may work for you.

[Joshua G]

Thank you very much, Bobster. Your suggestion is very helpful for me. 

[Bobster.]

Note the recent warnings from the President that despite improved performance, we are not out of the woods yet. This cold spell is going to put an enormous strain on resources.

Also there is a theory that load shedding is going to devolve. We already see this in Johannesburg where there is no load shedding and let's all give thanks, but there is load reduction in some areas (usually those with a high rate of non-payment and/or illegal connections). That is "reduction" instead of "shedding" is splitting hairs for the people involved. They don't have power so many hours a day.

Also the City is rolling out smart meters. This allows them to do load LIMITING IE you are restricted to just 10A, which is enough to keep the lights, wifi and TV on. They have said that this is one of a bundle of measures they may start using from July 2024 (that's now) to help keep their network up and running.

So what can we conclude? Despite the increased performance by Eskom, we are not out of the woods yet. Also municipalities who are getting a supply from Eskom are going to act unilaterally to protect their own infrastructure (which may be inadequate and is most likely not adequately maintained). So combine that with the savings on an increasingly expensive service, and I think there is still a good case for solar if you have the wherewithal. 

If you're going to do it, do it now whilst the going is good. I recall that after I had my system installed I sold the trolley inverter that we'd had. There had been no load shedding for a few weeks and I couldn't get a very good price for it. The week after I sold it there was load shedding again and the price climbed. Right now I am getting quotes for insulation in my roof. The guys giving the quotes are all warning that they are very busy right now. Why? Because it got cold. There is nothing like an immediate need to drive up prices and push out installation times.

Edited July 13 by Bobster.

[Bobster.]

On 2024/07/09 at 12:24 PM, Bobster. said:

If you're going to do it, do it now whilst the going is good. I recall that after I had my system installed I sold the trolley inverter that we'd had. There had been no load shedding for a few weeks and I couldn't get a very good price for it. The week after I sold it there was load shedding again and the price climbed. Right now I am getting quotes for insulation in my roof. The guys giving the quotes are all warning that they are very busy right now. Why? Because it got cold. There is nothing like an immediate need to drive up prices and push out installation times.

I saw a headline on a news report this morning that the solar industry is taking a hit after 100 odd days with no load shedding. So you might find you have a bit of bargaining power, or that installers will sharpen their pencils a little when quoting.

[GMAC]

I have advised people to upgrade there system or install now as priced are good . 

Install now or upgrade  not for load shedding but to save a few Rand's on electricity as it's clearly not getting cheaper and so the more you can power from the sun the better for the long run . 

Guess with time they going to find ways of bashing grid connected property that is not using grid on good sunny day . So it has its risks going off grid with grid connection .

For a month now I'm off grid and have managed to go through 5 rainy days in Limpopo with out issues but just scraped through so 4 more 550 panel are on order .

[TaliaB]

3 hours ago, GMAC said:

Install now or upgrade  not for load shedding but to save a few Rand's on electricity as it's clearly not getting cheaper and so the more you can power from the sun the better for the long run . 

Yes a few rands are definetly an understatement, below one of my clients in Gauteng that shared his electricity bills before solar installation and bill for May 2024. Installed in Oct 2023 8kw Deye inverter 20kwh battery and 8.4kwp solar array. He is not on pre-paid but gets his statement monthly from Ekuruleni. I cropped the statements not to share his personal information. Below kwh used before installation and 8 months after installation. Solar does pay the evidence below speaks for itself and that is after electricity rate increase in April 2024.

 

 

 

 

 

[Yami]

having a solar power system during periods of load shedding is not only worthwhile but also a smart investment. It offers continuous power supply, energy independence, cost savings, and environmental benefits. Embrace the advantages of solar energy to enhance your resilience against power outages and contribute to a sustainable future.

[GMAC]

The question should  now be  how many more price hikes higher than inflation is  there going to be as I don't think load shedding will be back any time soon

Edited July 23 by GMAC

[Vaal]

It appeared to me that loadshi..ing always increased as soon as Eskom started to negotiate with Nersa. 

We are not heavy power users but our grid consumption reduced from average 17 units per day to less than 2 units a day. Running the whole house with a gas stove and electric backed up solar geyser.

5 kw Sunsynk,  5kw battery and 5.3kw array. For me to get rid of the 2kw grid power I need another battery but the roi on that will take very long, if ever.

Cable problems in my area has caused a total of more than 20 days without power in 2 years. 

The next problem surfacing, is water supply. We are living in interesting times.

[Bobster.]

Load shedding has not gone away really. It is just targetted now.

That is not to say that there has not been a significant improvement - there has. 

But every day City Power in Johannesburg publish a load REDUCTION schedule. That means they are switching off specific areas, mostly poor, mostly with a high incidence of illegal connections, to, they say, protect their infrastructure. This is done during the morning and evening peasks. Eskom having been doing this for years now, even when there was load shedding going on.

So City Power and, by extension, Eskom, still cannot provide all the electricity that is needed. Even with the help of all the PV that is out there right now.

So, no, we're not out of the woods yet.

In the meantime there is progress being made on the renewables front with several big solar projects on line or in progress. Some of these are "wheeling deals" where the power is generated in one location and a company (usually a mine) buys all the output from the grid. But this is still a reduction on the load which Eskom must service.

[GreenFields]

I would have expected to see a shift in the marketing approach, ie. fewer ads promoting the product, technical specs, price and the loadshedding benefits, and more ads evaluating the investment case, electricity per-unit savings, payback period, projected Eskom increases, etc. Perhaps some attractive finance options to make the decision easier? Am I just looking in the wrong places?

[Bobster.]

4 hours ago, GreenFields said:

I would have expected to see a shift in the marketing approach, ie. fewer ads promoting the product, technical specs, price and the loadshedding benefits, and more ads evaluating the investment case, electricity per-unit savings, payback period, projected Eskom increases, etc. Perhaps some attractive finance options to make the decision easier? Am I just looking in the wrong places?

I think it's a hard case to make. MyBroadband have been testing a small system (3.3kW panels, 5kW inverter, 5kWh battery) in Tshwane, and they have bought the electricity bill at the test site (3 bedroom townhouse) down by R920 per month. 

They say that about half of the remaining grid consumption is due to a "trickle feed" that is required to stop the pre-paid meter detecting a feed-in and tripping. 

However, the system cost about R74K, and with financing at prime + 1 they are paying R1115 per month. So is that a saving?

OK... tariff hikes will change that sum each year over the life of the loan, and after that it's savings all the way - but your battery won't last forever.

So savings might not be a strong enough argument for home buyers, especially if people do sums for themselves. 

As usual, it's different for businesses who can write stuff off against tax.

Edited July 24 by Bobster.
sppeling

[Bobster.]

3 minutes ago, Bobster. said:

I think it's a hard case to make. MyBroadband have been testing a small system (3.3kW panels, 5kW inverter, 5kWh battery) in Tshwane, and they have bought the electricity bill at the test site (3 bedroom townhouse) down by R920 per month. 

That was using June tariffs. At the tariffs that came in on July 1st they are almost breaking even. So certainly over the life of the loan there should be a saving.

[JayMardern]

35 minutes ago, Bobster. said:

That was using June tariffs. At the tariffs that came in on July 1st they are almost breaking even. So certainly over the life of the loan there should be a saving.

Interesting read.

Had their consumption been higher (eg if it were more than just two people) they could've also added more panels at minimal cost (panels are cheap at the moment!), keeping the rest of their equipment as-is. But it looks like they've sized it perfectly to their current needs.

And of course once the loan is over and the system has paid for itself (5-6 years, likely even less as tariffs increase) it's pure profit thereafter.

[Douw G. Gerber]

Besides savings in my electricity bill...last night we had a 5 hour outage in large parts of the south of JHB due to 2 x 88Kva breakers tripping.  Our household could carry on without any interruption.

Going solar is about energy independance, not just about loadshedding.

Same goes for installing water backup...

[zsde]

Desmund Bernardo on why South Africa struggles with electricity

https://jermwarfare.com/conversations/desmund-bernardo-on-why-south-africa-struggles-with-electricity

[TaliaB]

On 2024/08/07 at 10:06 AM, Douw G. Gerber said:

Besides savings in my electricity bill...last night we had a 5 hour outage in large parts of the south of JHB due to 2 x 88Kva breakers tripping.  Our household could carry on without any interruption.

Going solar is about energy independance, not just about loadshedding.

Same goes for installing water backup...

Yep agreed. I recently installed 2 x 10kl Jojo water tanks with pumping system. Lucky for me i bought the premises with a borehole.

Edited August 28 by TaliaB

[Youda]

20m3 of water plus your own borehole? Amazing!

[Bobster.]

On 2024/07/05 at 3:19 PM, Bobster. said:

I think the case is harder to make with no load shedding at present, but there is a saving every month, and it may become viable to sell back the way the tariffs are rising.

Today I spoke to a guy whose electricity bill (on pre-paid) is 3.8 to 4K per month. He's open to the idea of a PV system just as a way of reducing what he pays for electricity. Because in a year's time that bill will be over 4k per month, probably over 4.5, and it will continue to climb. 

So this is a restatement of what I said earlier. Yes, it is still worth your while to have PV, if you can afford the short term pain for the long term gain.

[Scorp007]

Glad to see not a minute of no power in 5 months. Am I not lucky Now my budget grid tied inverters are pumping as they should. 80%+ of my power used is self generated this month.